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Our economics team examines the latest statistics on employment, trade, consumer spending, the energy industry and other economic drivers to provide insight into what is happening in Alberta and where our economy is heading.
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Recent Owls
Job vacancies higher in some industries than others
Accommodation and food services is in the unenviable position of having both the largest number of job vacancies and the highest job vacancy rate
Weekly wrap, September 22, 2023
A new economic outlook, and a slew of new economic data
A “hawkish” pause
The U.S. Federal Reserve did not hike interest rates yesterday but pointed to an increase before the end of the year
Hotter summer prices
Canada’s inflation rate accelerated to 4.0% last month (vs. 3.3% in July), fueled by gasoline prices
Ahead of the crowd
Our latest quarterly economic forecast for Alberta projects growth of 2.7% in 2023 followed by 2.0% next year
New vehicles sales stronger than last year but still not back to normal
Sales in 2023 and 2022 remain below the 10-year average in both Alberta and Canada
ATB Economics Weekly Wrap, September 15, 2023
This week's Wrap digs into manufacturing, wholesale trade and consumer insolvencies in Alberta
Inflation rises south of the border on higher gasoline prices
Inflation in the United States went in the wrong direction in August but probably did not rise enough to trigger another interest rate hike
Through the roof
Residential rental rates have been on the rise in Alberta and across Canada
Oil continued its rally in August
Voluntary oil production curtailment on the part of OPEC+ and rising global demand have helped push WTI and other benchmarks higher since June
Almost there
Employment in Alberta by industry compared to before the pandemic
Weekly wrap September 8, 2023
Summer sizzle - Alberta employment growth gains momentum
Current export value overshadowed by last year’s record high
Representing about three-quarters of the total value of Alberta’s international sales, energy exports almost single-handedly account for the year-over-year pullback
Policy interest rate stays put
As expected, the Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines this morning, keeping its policy rate unchanged at 5.0%
Soft GDP reading ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next move
Canadian GDP pulled back slightly in the second quarter, after a 2.6% gain in the first quarter
The Weekly Wrap, September 1, 2023
Soft GDP report ahead of next week’s rate decision
Early expectations for lower crop yields amid dry weather
Dry conditions in the central-east and south parts of the province are expected to weigh on crop yields in Alberta this year
Most businesses optimistic about their outlook
Two-thirds of businesses in Alberta are either very optimistic or somewhat optimistic about their future outlook over the next 12 months
Alberta’s resale housing market maintains momentum
After dropping to a 2-year low in February, residential unit sales in Alberta improved for the fifth straight month in July
Dining out more in 2023
Restaurant sales in June 2023 stood 12.4% above last year
The Weekly Wrap, August 25, 2023
Moving through the tills - the consumer edition
Rolling forward: Vehicle sales advance in the first half
The number of new motor vehicles sold in Alberta stood at 19,292 units in June 2023, up 6.8% from last June
Consumer pause: Retail sales take a breather in June
Alberta consumers pulled back on spending, though this only partly reversed May’s increase
Start me up: New home construction bounces back in July
Housing starts in Alberta picked up some steam in July after a slower start to the year
Farm prices ticked down again in June
Prices for crops received by Alberta farmers retreated further in June
The Weekly Wrap, August 18, 2023
Stubborn inflation and stronger housing
Blue gold
Natural gas production in Alberta remains robust over first half of 2023
Retreating prices lower manufacturing revenues
Factory sales in Alberta pulled back in June on lower refinery product and chemical sales
Canada’s inflation rate back above 3%
Consumer prices rose 3.3% in July from the same month last year, an acceleration from June’s 2-year low reading of 2.8%
Alberta's largest companies as of 2022
According to the latest list from the Financial Post, Alberta was home to the head offices of 131 of Canada’s 800 largest companies last year
The weekly wrap, August 11, 2023
Alberta exports, construction, and job seekers
Falling behind
Seasonally-adjusted residential construction intentions in Alberta increased for the second month in a row in June but continued to trend lower from last year's levels
Oil market expected to remain tight
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday and it’s good news for oil producers like Canada and Alberta
Price-driven energy exports dip in first half, while ag jumps
Sales of agriculture and food products helped to offset some of the drawdown in energy exports so far this year, posting a 51% year-to-date increase ($2.2 billion)
The weekly wrap, August 4, 2023
Alberta labour report - more jobs, more people
Temporary foreign workers in Alberta
Over the first half of 2023, the number of foreign workers coming to Alberta was 147% higher than at the same point in 2022
Oil rallies in July
The West Texas Intermediate oil price benchmark averaged $76 in July or about 8% higher than in June