With the exception of 2016 (when wildfires reduced output) and 2020 (when the pandemic curtailed global demand), Alberta’s annual oil production has increased every year since 2011. The build-out of the oil sands, rising U.S. demand, increased pipeline capacity, and greater access to Asian markets have worked together to support this.

The upward trajectory has continued so far this year, with daily production over the first six months of 2026 higher than it has ever been at 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d). This is 3% higher than over the same period in 2025 and 53% above where things stood at the same point ten years ago.  

Although volatile, stronger oil prices since the outbreak of the war in Iran have been supportive of production growth this year. The West Texas Intermediate benchmark oil price averaged US$82 over the first half of 2026 compared to US$68 over the first half of 2025.  

With the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline now running at full capacity, future production growth will be constrained until enhancements to the current transportation system are completed, new pipelines are constructed, more oil is moved by rail, and/or Alberta refineries increase their use. On this front, Enbridge has postponed plans for Phase 2 of its Mainline expansion project, but Phase 1’s additional 150,000 b/d of new capacity is expected to be operational in 2027.

In terms of major future increases in production, added pipeline capacity is key. The proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline would, for example, add one million b/d and the proposed Bridger Pipeline Expansion would add 550,000 b/d. Trans Mountain’s Mainline Optimization Project would add 300,000 b/d of new capacity if completed.

We anticipate that oil production in Alberta will continue to inch up, but will not move into a significant new phase of growth until there is more certainty on future transportation capacity. According to our latest quarterly economic outlook, Alberta’s real oil and gas exports are expected to grow 2.3%, on average, until 2027.

Answer to the previous trivia question: “Can’t Buy Me Love” by The Beatles was released in 1964.

Today’s trivia question: When was Enbridge founded?