In new data released this morning, Canada’s population declined for the third straight quarter. The population shrank by 55,025 residents between January 1 and April 1 of this year. That brings the estimated tally of Canadians to 41,417,056 as of April 1.

When measured on a year-over-year basis, Canada’s population contracted by 0.5% - the second straight decline. Prior to the latest dip, population had not declined in Canada over a 12-month period since at least 1947 (latest comparable data).

From rapid inflows to outflows

Canada is adjusting to a major demographic shift. In 2024, Canada saw its population soar by over 3%, with 1.2 million residents added. The federal government has since announced much lower targets for the non-permanent resident population or NPRs (below 5% of the population by the end of 2027) and a pullback in permanent immigration.

The result is lower immigration numbers. NPRs shrank by 117,879 in the first quarter, while permanent immigration slowed to 83,149 - a decline of 20.2% compared to the same time last year. 

The longer term trends also reveal a slowdown in the population caused by natural increase (births less deaths). Natural increase was slightly negative for the second quarter in a row, down 155 in the first quarter.  

Alberta - slowing, but still growing

Alberta remains a demographic outlier. Its population is slowing dramatically, but it’s one of the only provinces that’s still witnessing population growth. Alberta added 8,926 (+0.2%) people in Q1.  The only other provinces that saw population growth were Nova Scotia (+778) and Saskatchewan (+156), while the territories gained a collective 549. 

Over the latest 12 month period, Alberta’s population grew 0.9%. That’s its slowest rate since the pandemic, but the fastest among provinces.

What’s going on in Alberta? It’s partly due to smaller NPR outflows. Prior to the shift in immigration policy, it already had a lower share of NPRs relative to its population. NPRs fell 9,993 in the first quarter in Alberta - a fraction of the national decline. Unlike the rest of Canada, natural increase also remained positive at 3,568 last quarter.

The other major factor is interprovincial migration. While down from its peak, it has been a net positive for 19 consecutive quarters, matching the same quarterly streak of the late 2010- early 2015 period. In the first quarter, Alberta added 6,006 people from the rest of the country. 

Relative housing affordability is playing a role, as we have uncovered in detail. But increasingly it’s likely a stronger job market, with Alberta leading all provinces in employment growth this year. The unemployment rate fell from a four-year high of 8.2% last August, and now sits at 6.6% - matching the national average.

Economic implications

Much has been made about the ‘technical recession’ in Canada, with GDP contracting for two straight quarters (not likely an actual recession, though). A big part of that is that the population is now declining, and no longer supporting GDP. More importantly, it raises the need to find other ways to grow the economy by addressing long-standing structural weaknesses in business investment and productivity. Our forecast is for the Canadian economy to grow by 0.8% - a modest pace but still exceeding (negative) population growth.

As for Alberta, more persistent population growth, along with an uptick in oil patch activity, will help the economy grow at a faster rate than the national average. However, the population slowdown is also leading to a more moderate pace of home construction and consumer spending. For 2026, we are forecasting 1.1% population growth and 2.6% economic growth in Alberta. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: Commissioned in 1969, the Kenai LNG plant in Nikiski, Alaska is the oldest continuously operating LNG export facility globally.

Today’s trivia question: Which state experienced the fastest population growth in the U.S. last year?