Key points

• Recent population growth was revised higher in Canada and Alberta.
• Alberta led all provinces in population growth in 2026.
• Alberta gained people from other parts of the country for the 20th straight quarter.

Today we’re counting people, compliments of new data from Statistics Canada released this morning. We get population numbers every quarter, but this quarter is extra special. With the release of the July 1 estimates, we now have a tally of the 2026 population (demographers count the midpoint of the year as the annual estimate).

Slowest annual gain since WWII

Canada’s population hit an estimated 41,798,407 as of July 1, 2026. That’s an increase of 189,425 people since the same time last year—the smallest annual increase since WWII (1944/45). In percentage terms, the 0.5% annual increase is the smallest since 1915/16.

If 0.5% still seems like a larger increase than you were expecting, you’re not alone. It turns out that Statistics Canada has revised up recent quarterly estimates of the population. Recall that in previous quarters, the population had declined year-over-year. Not anymore.

More people than first thought

The historical adjustments mainly come from the non-permanent resident (NPR) population. Statistics Canada is saying it’s using administrative records that better capture changes in this population, including permit extensions. The net result is that there are more NPRs, and hence a larger overall population, than previously estimated last June. At the same time, the 2025 numbers have been revised lower. As you can imagine, this fundamentally changes growth rates, as shown in the chart below.

Bottom line: Instead of shrinking year-over-year, as previously estimated, the Canadian population has been crawling up. 

Why faster growth in Alberta? A triad of factors

Turning to Alberta, the same story holds even with the historical revisions. Alberta’s population, which now stands at 5,101,050 people, has slowed. But it still grew faster than every other province in 2026 (1.5% vs 0.5% nationally).

The reasons for faster population growth in Alberta are three-fold: 

1) A smaller decline in the NPR population; 

2) Larger natural increases (births minus deaths); and 

3) Net interprovincial migration into Alberta.

The first factor reflects a lower starting point. As a share of the population, Alberta already had fewer NPRs (including international students) than the national average before the large shift in federal immigration policy that significantly cut the NPR targets.

The second factor is more structural, reflecting Alberta’s younger population. In 2026, births exceeded deaths by 19,300 in Alberta—the second largest natural increase after Ontario and accounting for more than half of the natural increase in Canada (37,644).

It’s the third factor that warrants more attention, as it points to relative economic conditions in Alberta. Interprovincial migration to Alberta has cooled off, but it’s been net positive (more Canadians coming to Alberta than leaving) for 20 consecutive quarters. Last quarter, Alberta added 5,893 migrants from other parts of the country—the largest increase among the provinces.

Alberta’s economy is expected to grow faster than the national average this year and next, reinforced by recent data like employment growth and retail sales. If relative economic conditions are stronger, you’d expect people to come. This is happening. What’s different is that Alberta's economy is not booming in the classic sense (characterized by low unemployment, rapid wage growth, and 4%+ real GDP growth). Yet its relative position, especially during the trade war, has improved over other provinces.

Scatter plot puzzle

This wave of interprovincial migration to Alberta, though, has another twist. It has continued despite higher unemployment rates in Alberta. I won’t bore you again with my scatter plot, but instead I’ll tell you what it shows. There have been only four years since 1976 where Alberta has gained people from other provinces despite having a higher unemployment rate than the rest of Canada—and those have been the last four years (2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025). That’s a calendar-year comparison, and 2026 will be a close call on whether the recent ‘outlier’ pattern holds.

How is this possible? Even though employment is growing faster in Alberta, the province is also getting faster population growth. This means more job seekers, keeping unemployment elevated.

But it also speaks to other drivers that have become important. We have long argued that relatively affordable housing in Alberta, especially compared to Ontario and B.C., has taken on an outsized role.

More recently, however, we think the dynamics are changing and that the job market has become a bigger driver, especially now that the housing price gap has narrowed. Alberta is adding jobs at a faster annual clip than elsewhere, which we believe (along with slower population growth) will ultimately translate into unemployment rates more in line with national trends.  

Forecast implications

Despite massive historical revisions, our June forecast was not too far off. We were forecasting in June 1.1% population growth for 2026 versus Statistics Canada’s 1.5%. In 2027, we are retaining our forecast of 1.5% population growth.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Until late 2013, aircraft taking off and landing at the Edmonton City Centre Airport restricted buildings in downtown Edmonton from reaching an elevation higher than about 150 metres.

Today’s trivia question: What is the largest urban area in Atlantic Canada?