Alberta’s economy continues to weather the geopolitical storm better than most, growing faster than the national economy during the tariff shock of 2025. As the country’s largest oil producer, it is expected to be the growth leader in 2026 following the surge in oil prices stemming from the war in Iran.

Released today, ATB Financial’s Alberta Economic Outlook projects Alberta’s real GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2026, well above the 2.1% projected in December before the Iran war disrupted global markets. By comparison, the national economy is expected to grow by 0.8% this year.  

Beyond the energy sector, this economic momentum is being supported by persistent in-migration. While population growth is expected to slow to 1.1% this year, it is growing faster than all other provinces driven by relative housing affordability and an improving labour market. This is leading to more catch-up in construction and momentum on consumer spending than elsewhere in the country.

But this is not a classic energy boom as producers are maintaining capital discipline amid uncertainty over prices, regulations, and pipeline capacity.  On the ground the reality remains complex: households are navigating a steep cost of living, youth unemployment remains high, and hiring is being held back as businesses await clarity on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement scheduled for review this summer.

Alberta is moving like a fast car in the slow lane. The momentum is clear, with Alberta leading the country in job gains. However, the trade conflict, ongoing cost of living pressures, and transportation infrastructure constraints are keeping the province from hitting top gear. 

Read the full report here.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Prime Minister Carney served as the Governor of the Bank of Canada from February 1, 2008 to June 1, 2013 when he left before the end of his seven-year term to become the Governor of the Bank of England.

Today’s trivia question: True or false? U.S. President Nixon proposed a ban on selling gasoline on Sundays as part of an effort to address the energy crisis that followed the 1973 Arab oil embargo?