How unusual is this? Pretty rare—you need to go back to 2014 to find a time when Alberta accounted for 50%+ of national job gains.

What happened? Alberta kept adding jobs at about the same rate, but the rest of Canada slowed. The main thing is that Alberta avoided the outright decline in jobs in the first quarter of this year. Gains have been observed across most industries, led by health care and social assistance, and across all major categories (private, public and self-employment). Interestingly, despite the spike in oil prices, oil and gas sector employment is actually down over this period. It’s not been the same energy-induced hiring cycle as we’ve seen in the past (see “This time is different”).

What explains all this? We know from other economic data that Alberta has outperformed on other metrics, including retail sales from this week. It’s also seen a pick up in energy exports and rig activity, owing to the oil price increase. Alberta faces a lower U.S. effective tariff rate—thanks to tariff exemptions on energy and less exposure to sector-specific tariffs. It is also seeing more persistent population growth than other provinces.

Explanations aside, the size of the Alberta gains has surprised us and we will need to upgrade our employment forecast yet again.

What’s next? Job growth in other provinces is finally starting to improve, and we see the pace of employment gains in Alberta moderating. Expect Alberta to outperform, but not by the same extent in the second half.

Another major project green light: The Yellowhead Pipeline

ATCO’s Yellowhead Mainline, something we’ve explored, has secured final approvals from the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) and will break ground as soon as possible. The company estimates that the $2.9 billion project will support 2,000 construction jobs as the company pushes toward a targeted in-service date of November 2027.

Stretching 235 kilometres from Peers in west-central Alberta to the Fort Saskatchewan region, the pipeline will have a capacity of over 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. To put that scale into perspective, this pipeline will deliver roughly the same amount of energy as Alberta’s entire electricity grid produces on a peak day. The project will help meet surging demand for natural gas in the Alberta Industrial Heartland.

ATCO’s project follows another major investment in Alberta—the $13 billion Meta data centre project in Sturgeon County. The West Coast Pipeline and Pathway’s carbon capture project are also on our radar, representing tens of billions of investment and providing the most upside to our forecast.

Who’s going to ‘build baby build’?

These major projects have got me thinking—who is going to build them? Just yesterday I had a conversation with someone who asked where we’ll find electricians with a new data centre and other industrial projects taking shape.

Perhaps this is a good problem to have. After years of lower business investment, who’s going to complain about growth and job opportunities?

In fact, over the last few years we’ve talked about elevated unemployment, particularly among youth, despite steady job growth. In April, Alberta’s job vacancy rate (vacant jobs as a share of jobs in demand) sat at 2.9%—down from the peak of 5.2% in April 2022, but still slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Keep in mind, however, that large population inflows have helped keep that vacancy rate contained—and now those inflows have slowed.

Bottom line: We should not take the workforce for granted amid these new project announcements. Attracting skilled labour, upskilling and training the workforce, and smart immigration policy that matches people to skills in demand will be key.

Cutting back - U.S. travel and liquor imports since the trade war

Heading to the U.S. this summer? The latest data shows that many Canadians are still avoiding the U.S., though travel has picked up from the low of summer 2025.

The number of Canadians returning from the U.S. was 2.5 million in May—that’s up 10% from May 2025, but still down 25% from the pre-trade war/post-pandemic peak levels.

Interesting Fact: Productivity and age

I should be productive. That’s my interpretation of a recent Statistics Canada study that shows that labour productivity peaks in your 40s.

This study looks at the relationship between workforce aging and productivity using firm and industry-level data, controlling for other factors. It finds that “labour productivity of firms increases with average worker age, peaking in the 40s, before declining slightly thereafter.” I’ll add a giant caveat to this finding. The report is looking at averages using firm level data. Of course, there are many younger and older Canadians who will be more productive than their middle-age counterparts.

On the surface, this may sound like population aging would be a drag on overall productivity, but the study doesn’t really make that leap. It concludes that, with the right policies and life-long learning, productivity need not fall.

Chart of the Week: How exposed is each province to new U.S. tariffs?

As always, sweeping conclusions on how events will impact Canada can be incomplete, or even misleading. This week’s announcement by President Trump that new tariffs will be applied is a perfect example. Details matter, and it turns out the impacts are very industry and region specific.

We put our estimate out on Tuesday by linking the 500+ products on the list to 6-digit HS codes using 2025 data. We found that about 14% of B.C. exports to the U.S. would be subject to the new tariffs; next most exposed is Quebec at 10% and Ontario at 9%. On the other end of the spectrum are Alberta and Saskatchewan at only 1%—thanks to energy and potash exemptions. Many Atlantic provinces are protected as seafood products are excluded.

Why the massive variation? Each province has a very unique mix of products that are exported to the U.S. The items on the tariff list—like electronics, dairy, machinery, wood products, liquor, sporting goods—tend to come from the three most populous provinces.