From U.S. tariffs to inflation to slowing population growth, there is no shortage of negative economic news that could undermine business confidence in Alberta. At the same time, strong oil prices, forward momentum on major projects, and resilient consumer spending are significant patches of blue sky amid the dark clouds.

Two surveys provide a sense of how Alberta businesses are feeling about all this.*

The first is the Business Council of Alberta’s inaugural Alberta CEO Pulse Survey. Conducted from June 25 to July 7 with CEOs of companies that are members of the BCA, the survey found that “Alberta business leaders are upbeat about the year ahead and are preparing to invest, hire, and grow over the coming year.”

About two-thirds (65%) of the business executives who responded expect economic conditions in Alberta to improve over the next 12 months; 28% expect them to stay the same; only 8% expect them to deteriorate.

Given everything going on around the world, that is a strong vote of confidence regarding what’s next for the Alberta economy. The BCA points to improving business conditions in the oil and gas sector as a key reason for the high level of optimism.

The confidence is spilling over to hiring plans, with 50% of respondents saying they are planning to increase their workforce; 39% planning to keep things as is; and just 11% expecting to cut jobs. This finding comes despite the fact that over half (55%) of executives expect input costs to rise at a faster rate than over the previous 12 months.

As the BCA notes, “There are a number of new projects under construction or on the horizon, including the recent announcement of a major data centre north of Edmonton and the proposal to build a pipeline to the west coast. But, at the same time, debate over the October referendum on separation is intensifying. Amid it all, the mood among Alberta business leaders is remarkably positive.”

The second survey is the Monthly Business Barometer from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Conducted from July 7 to 13 with a random sample of CFIB members (who skew more toward the small business end of the continuum than BCA members), the results show that small business sentiment in Alberta dipped slightly in July, but remained optimistic overall with a reading of 54.2. (Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.)  

The index for the 12-month outlook among Alberta small businesses has been hovering around 55-58 over the first half of the year, which is a significant improvement over last year’s average of 49.2. Sentiment was particularly low in the spring of 2025 when President Trump’s tariff threats were in full swing.

Just under half (48%) of the Alberta respondents cited insufficient demand as a factor limiting their ability to increase sales or production. Second on the list at 44% was a shortage of skilled labour. It’s a different question, but there is some overlap here with the BCA results, which found that 47% of respondents were experiencing difficulty finding or retaining employees.

Almost three-quarters (73%) of small businesses in Alberta report that tax and regulatory costs are a problem, with 68% citing fuel costs as causing difficulty for their business.

Hiring plans are not as robust among CFIB members in Alberta as they are in the BCA survey, though the time frame is shorter, with 15% expecting employment levels outside normal seasonal variation to go up over the next 3-4 months. Most small businesses expect employment levels to stay the same with only 8% expecting them to go down (an improvement over previous months).

Bottom line: While we have to be careful lumping two different surveys together, the general picture painted by both the BCA and CFIB is one in which business optimism in Alberta currently outweighs pessimism. The results also point to continued employment growth in the province in the months ahead. At the same time, finding skilled workers remains a key challenge as does the cost of doing business.

*Both surveys were conducted before the latest round of U.S. tariff threats, so we will have to wait and see what effect that has on confidence going forward.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The median age of the Canadian population as of July 1, 2025 was 40.6 years.

Today’s trivia question: Which province produced the most potatoes last year?