Based on a survey of its members, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) produces an index of small business confidence based on a 12-month forward expectation for business performance called the Business Barometer.

As of September, the barometer reading for Alberta was 59.2, down from 64.3 in August. The index got as low as 26.2 in March.

It’s not possible to pinpoint why business confidence in Alberta slipped in September, but it’s reasonable to assume that concern regarding the pace of the recovery was weighing on the outlook of business owners.

Nationally, the reading was also 59.2 in September, unchanged from the month before. The national index reached its nadir in March when it dropped to 30.8.

When asked about business performance three months out rather than 12, the barometer reading for September was only 41.4. As the CFIB report notes, “the gap suggests many businesses are still facing significant difficulties.

In addition, when asked about the current state of their business, 37 per cent of owners in Alberta said their operation was in “bad shape” compared to 19 per cent who said “good” and 44 per cent who said “satisfactory.” This is an improvement over August when 46 per cent said their business was in “bad shape.”

Nationally, 27 per cent of owners said their business was in “bad shape,” 28 per cent “good” and 45 per cent “satisfactory.”