Last week, we reported that national GDP growth for the second quarter is projected to surpass expectations. Canada’s exports have played a major role in this, and in today's edition of the Twenty-Four, we take a closer look at their performance  over the first half of the year.

Canadian merchandise exports hit a new peak in Q2

Following a sluggish opening to the year, a new milestone was reached in Q2 2026 as merchandise exports* surged to a record high, posting a 24% increase in dollar value compared to Q2 2025. Year-to-date (YTD) exports, meanwhile, were up by a more modest, but still impressive, 7%.

From a regional perspective, the YTD increase was predominantly driven by Ontario and Alberta, which accounted for the bulk (86%) of the total national gain. [A more detailed analysis of provincial trends and tariff impacts will be explored in a forthcoming Twenty-Four.]

U.S. shipments rebound on higher oil prices

After posting heavy declines in previous quarters, national exports destined for the U.S. rebounded in Q2 2026 on the back of higher energy exports. Volumes were up, but the key was higher oil prices linked to the war in Iran. The West Texas Intermediate benchmark oil price averaged US$93 in Q2 2026, 46% higher than in Q2 2025.

Despite the strong increase in Q2, the proportion of exports destined for the U.S. remains down so far this year, averaging 67% over the January to June period—a drop from 72% in 2025 and the lowest level recorded since 1997. A primary driver for this shift was an expansion in export activity to non-U.S. destinations.  

Gold, copper and energy fuel gains to other markets

Fueled by strong demand from Asian and European markets, exports to non-U.S. destinations reached an all-time high in Q2 2026, continuing an upward trajectory that began early last year. Helped along by higher commodity prices, the value of Canada’s exports to countries other than the U.S. was 32% higher YTD relative to the first half of 2025.

Energy exports have been a primary driver of this growth, supported by elevated prices and structural improvements in market access since 2018. Oil shipments surged 51% YTD to Asian markets, driven by a 116% increase to China. Concurrently, exports of copper ores and concentrates experienced a 59% jump, fueled by demand from China, South Korea, and Japan. Combined, oil and copper ore exports accounted for over two-thirds of the total export expansion to Asian markets during the first half of 2026.

Despite the advances in energy and copper, gold has delivered the single largest contribution to national export growth so far this year. Boosted by elevated prices, the value of gold exports—primarily directed to the U.K. and the Netherlands—surged by 57% YTD.

What’s to come?

Despite tariffs and negative rhetoric, the United States continues to be Canada’s largest customer by a substantial margin. Tensions escalated near the end of July when President Trump declared new tariffs on a selection of Canadian goods, which are set to become active on August 19.

The Canadian economy has shown resilience through the opening half of the year in the face of these challenges. Looking ahead to the second half, outbound shipments to alternative international markets are projected to sustain their momentum, supported by ongoing advancements in trade relationships with Mexico and other global trading partners.

*All figures in today’s report have been adjusted for seasonal fluctuations and are on a customs basis.

Answer to the previous trivia question: A baseball game was broadcast over the radio for the first time on August 4, 1921 (the Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Philadelphia Phillies 8 to 5).

Today’s trivia question: Which country was the largest gold exporter (in value) in the world last year?