Ball of confusion
Canadian businesses and the trade war
By Rob Roach, ATB Economics 29 May 2025 1 min read
Conducted from April 1 to May 5, 2025, the latest results from the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions show that over 4 in 10 respondents see the Trump administration creating greater uncertainty for their businesses over the next 12 months with about 3 in 10 not sure what the impact will be (which is, arguably, another form of uncertainty).
Accompanying this is the expectation that the actions of the Trump administration will increase the cost of material inputs for 40% of Canadian businesses with 34% expecting they will have to increase the prices they charge their customers.
Standing at the centre of this is the chaotic path of recent U.S. trade policy with nearly one-fifth (18%) of respondents saying the imposition of U.S. tariffs would have a high level of impact on their businesses with another 34% citing at least some impact.
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Not surprisingly, businesses involved in foreign trade are the most likely to cite the potential impact of tariffs with almost 60% of businesses that export goods saying U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would have a high or medium impact on them and almost 50% of businesses that import goods saying the imposition of Canadian tariffs on U.S. goods would have a high or medium impact on them.
Looking at the actions taken in response to U.S. tariffs so far (keeping in mind that only a fraction of the threatened U.S. tariffs on Canada have been implemented), the two most common are seeking alternative suppliers outside the U.S. and increasing sourcing from Canadian suppliers (see the chart below). Finding non-U.S. customers has, so far at least, only been tried by 4% of businesses. Also concerning, given Canada’s already sluggish levels of business investment, some businesses are saying they are delaying investment or expansion plans.
Answer to the previous trivia question: The longest runway in Canada is located at Calgary International Airport. It is 14,000 feet (4,300 meters) in length.
Today’s trivia question: How many businesses with employees are there in Canada?
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