Although an economic lockdown on par with what prevailed in the spring seems unlikely, record-breaking increases in COVID-19 cases south of the border will disrupt the U.S. economic recovery with the ripple effects reaching us here in Alberta.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of new cases reported in the U.S. hit 54,357 on July 1, surpassing the previous peak of 43,438 set on April 6. Another 53,301 cases were added on July 2. It has been suggested that this is not the second wave of the virus, which is expected around October and November, but the result of a lack of vigilance on the part of many Americans.

Whatever the reason for it, the resurgence in the virus has led to the reintroduction of containment measures in some states. California, for example, has once again closed its bars and theatres and reinstated its ban on indoor restaurant dining. In Texas, the governor has empowered local authorities to limit gatherings to 10 people.

Independent of these and other mandatory public health measures, fear of the virus will dampen economic activity as more people elect to hunker down.

Here in Canada, we have had greater success at containing the virus while reopening our economy with the number of new cases waning rather than waxing. This bodes well, but the unfortunate situation in the U.S. suggests that social distancing and other measures will need to continue for the foreseeable future.

And because the U.S. is our main customer, the extra bumps on its road to recovery created by the rise in cases will make our recovery rougher as well.