Key points

• The latest results from the ATB Cormark Capital Markets semi-annual Energy Sector Survey point to momentum building in the Canadian energy sector. 
• Respondents indicated improving business outlooks and higher expectations of production growth among producers; institutional investors report becoming more bullish on the Canadian energy sector.
• Federal energy and environmental policies still remain the top-ranked risk, but respondents are now more optimistic that LNG and crude egress projects will proceed. 

Semi-annually in the spring and fall, ATB Cormark Capital Markets conducts an Energy Sector Survey to gauge current industry sentiment.

The Fall 2026 Survey garnered responses from executives representing 22 energy services companies, 27 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 42 institutional investors. Responses were collected from September 14, 2026 to September 28, 2026. The Survey was led by Tim Monachello, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Managing Director, Institutional Research, Energy and Industrial Services and Technology. 

After a decade of optimization, disciplined capital allocation, and holding the line, a question is confronting Alberta’s economy: Are we on the cusp of a new energy growth cycle? 

The overarching sentiment within the Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey results, aligned with our recent commentary, is that we are indeed on a cusp.

Almost all (96%) of exploration and production (E&P) respondents expect to increase production over the next 12 months, with growth skewed toward oil producers targeting an increase of around 10% in 2027. Energy services companies mirror this sentiment, with 90% anticipating higher activity next year. Even institutional investors are pivoting: for the first time in survey history, growth capital expenditure—spending used to expand operations and increase capacity as opposed to maintaining current operations—emerged as their top capital allocation priority. 

Momentum building 

Sentiment has been strengthening over the past three months, 84% of E&P executives and 81% of energy services providers reported improved business outlooks, with 88% of E&Ps characterizing their six-month outlook as improving. On the capital side, 78% of institutional investors believe Canadian energy equities are undervalued, 63% expect energy equities to outperform over the next year, and 76% report becoming more bullish on the sector over the past six months. Putting this all together, it’s a signal of confidence in the Canadian energy industry.

Service pricing and operating margins are expanding, with more energy services companies reporting "excess demand" rather than "excess capacity" for the first time since the fall of 2022. 

More optimistic on egress, but still waiting for final decisions

While federal energy and environmental policies remain the top-ranked risk for the sector, sentiment toward government growth initiatives has improved noticeably. 89% of survey respondents feel encouraged or highly encouraged by the federal government’s approach to expanding the industry. It’s also important to note that this survey was conducted before the announcements of Pacific Link’s designation as a project of national interest and the LNG Canada Phase 2 positive final investment decision (FID).

Notably, major egress infrastructure is no longer viewed as a pipe dream: 

• Among respondents with a view, strong majorities expect positive FIDs for Pacific Link/Pathways (91%), Prairie Connector (93%), and Ksi Lisims LNG (97%). Together, these projects would add at least 1.6 million barrels per day of crude egress capacity and 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of LNG export capacity (in addition to LNG Canada Phase 2).
• Conversely, 66% of respondents with a view believe the proposed Northern Shield Energy Corridor is unlikely to proceed, while a majority view major decarbonization mandates, on a standalone basis, as harmful to the long-term competitiveness of the industry.

The geopolitical disruptor

Headwinds in the Middle East are actively reshaping global market dynamics and flows:

• 53% of respondents with an opinion believe Middle Eastern crude exports will remain below pre-war levels through 2027.
• 72% of survey takers expect global crude supply/demand balances to remain tighter over the long term relative to pre-war expectations.
• 79% of institutional investors noted that Middle East crude and LNG export disruptions have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy equities.

Bottom line

There is momentum building in Canadian energy but this upcoming growth cycle will not mirror the booms of the past. For the last decade, Western Canada’s energy sector has been focused on discipline, cost efficiency, and a general reluctance to pursue growth projects. However, with a more favourable policy environment and additional egress proving more likely, the Fall Energy Survey indicates the industry is on the cusp of a new wave of growth. Having learned from previous cycles, the sector will maintain its pragmatism and will not pursue expansion at any cost. Ultimately, the resulting combination of new energy infrastructure and the upstream investment needed to fill it presents significant upside to both our Alberta and Canadian economic outlooks. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: In 1982, Bertha Wilson made history as the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada.

Today’s trivia question: Who was the first woman to be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame?