Breaking-ish news

Key points

• It takes a while, but we finally have the provincial GDP estimates for 2025 and they show that Alberta’s growth was stronger than originally thought.
• At 3.3%, Alberta’s real GDP grew by more than the national average of 1.9%.
• When population growth is taken into account, Alberta’s economy grew on a per resident basis last year for the first time since 2022. 

It’s that time of year again: Provincial GDP Estimates Day…for 2025.

Despite the eleven-month lag, these GDP estimates allow us to refine our understanding of how the economy actually performed, which we can use to help us understand where it might be headed.  Sometimes you need to take a second look in the rearview mirror before moving forward.

So, how did things shake out in 2025?

Back in May, Statistics Canada published a related measure called GDP by industry. It’s a helpful metric, but not the one we’re interested in for our forecasting model. We used that number to inform our GDP estimate of  2.7% for 2025. Turns out, that estimate was too low, as today’s number came in at 3.3%. Further, 2024 was revised up to 3.4% from 3.0%. 

That’s good news as it means Alberta’s economic base is that much larger going forward with future growth adding to a bigger pie. Digging into the GDP details, key drivers of Alberta’s growth in 2025 included trade (exports minus imports), housing construction, infrastructure investments, and consumer spending—although consumers played a smaller role in Alberta’s growth than in 2024.

Canada’s real GDP grew by a more modest 1.9% last year. Newfoundland and Labrador grew the most at a whopping 4.3% annual increase. Quebec recorded the slowest rate of growth at 1.0%.

The strong showing by Newfoundland and Labrador was driven by a 10.3% increase in real international exports, led by higher shipments of crude oil. Canada’s international export volumes, meanwhile, contracted by 1.1%.

As expected, provinces more exposed to U.S. tariffs such as Ontario and Quebec, experienced slower growth last year—hurt by sector-specific tariffs and trade uncertainty, while oil-producing provinces performed better.

Catching up to population growth

While total economic output is important, it is also useful to look at performance per resident. GDP per person has struggled across Canada over the last decade. 

Although it has yet to regain the ground lost since 2014 when oil and gas extraction investment reached an all-time high, Alberta’s GDP per resident increased last year for the first time since 2022 as economic output outpaced a 2.5% increase in the population. Canada’s GDP per resident also ticked up last year. The gap has narrowed over the last decade, but Alberta retained the highest GDP per capita among provinces in both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms last year.

Alberta’s GDP per resident remains below its pre-pandemic and 2014 peak levels, but is expected to keep rising as economic growth continues to outpace population growth.

Generating more timely information

Given the significant 11-month lag in key GDP data, there is a clear need for a more timely gauge. To address this, ATB Economics is developing a nowcasting tool designed to measure Alberta’s economic health on a more timely basis . We expect to launch this tool in our forthcoming December Economic Outlook—stay tuned!

Answer to the previous trivia question: The rule of 72 estimates how many years it takes for an investment to double, by dividing 72 by the annual interest rate.

Today’s trivia question: Edmonton is hosting the CFL’s Western Final on Saturday, November 7. Which team are the Edmonton Elks facing off against?