Residential construction activity in Alberta has slowed, but it is far from slow.

The latest housing start numbers released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation show that housing starts in the province over the first half of the year are 21% lower than over the same six months in 2025.*

That is definitely a slower pace, but we have to remember that 2025 was an all-time record year for home construction in Alberta.

At almost 47,000, the number of housing starts in Alberta halfway through the year is the third highest in two decades and is 38% higher than the 20-year average.  

A truly “slow” pace would be a level closer to what we saw in 2009 during the global financial crisis (15K), during the recession of 2016 (24K), or during the first year of the pandemic (21K).

This bodes well for Alberta’s economic performance in 2026 with residential construction supporting a lot of direct jobs and ancillary activity in areas such as manufacturing, finance and retail sales.

That’s great, but what happens next? This, of course, is the harder question to answer, but there are some signs and they are pointing to a more moderate pace of construction.

Population growth is a key factor. It’s not a coincidence that record housing starts in Alberta followed record population growth. Alberta added 220,454 residents in 2024 (an all-time high). This slowed to 120,316 last year and our latest forecast sees this falling to 54,000 in 2026.

So while the province is still adding residents, at some point the supply of new housing will “catch up” to past population growth and we will see housing starts moderate further.

The timing of this is tricky to pinpoint (hence the risk of overbuilding), but we think it is reasonable to assume that housing starts will cool off some more over the second half of 2026 to land at around 42,000, or about 5,000 less than the pace seen over the first half of the year suggests. This is supported by a pullback in residential permitting activity so far this year.

Annual starts are then expected to ease to about 35,000 in 2027 right around the 10-year average. So, once again, slower but not necessarily slow.

*The housing starts numbers reported in today’s Twenty-Four are year-to-date averages as of June and are seasonally adjusted at annual rates.

Answer to the previous trivia question: July 15, 1957 was the first official day of production of the Edsel, a car that would come to symbolize failure in popular culture.

Today’s trivia question: Formerly known as the Edmonton Exhibition, Klondike Days, and Capital Ex, KDays is an annual exhibition that starts this year on July 17. In what year was the first Edmonton Exhibition held?