Canadian employment fell by 18K jobs in April, disappointing consensus expectations of an approximate 15K increase. The details paint a soft picture, with losses led by full-time positions.

Employment sits 112K below December 2025 levels in what has proven to be a shaky start to the year for Canada.  

Trade-exposed industries lagging

U.S. trade-dependent industries in the manufacturing sector) have not fared well since the start of the trade war, with exports and employment in these areas slipping.

Last month, manufacturing employment held steady but was down 59K from its January 2025 peak.

Unemployment drifts higher

Canada’s economy is still not creating enough jobs to absorb the job seekers, even as population growth slows to a crawl.

The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points to 6.9%—the highest since last October. Moreover, youth unemployment, which has been stubbornly high, saw another increase last month to 14.3%.

Recall that during the population boom, the Canadian labour market had to work extra hard to churn out jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising. That bar has been lowered—but it’s still not being cleared. The labour force grew only 0.4% year-over-year (y/y), and yet employment eked out an even smaller 0.3% gain.  

Alberta employment holds steady, but unemployment rises

Alberta’s employment has been more resilient than other provinces to start the year, and in April employment held steady (+1K, which statistically is zero). The details were mixed: job gains were concentrated in the private sector, but also in part-time positions. Moreover, the monthly rate of job creation has slowed recently.

Employment in the resource category (oil and gas, mining, forestry) remains little changed since the energy price spike in March/April, which in part reflects ongoing caution and capital discipline among producers. 

With faster population growth, Alberta has a higher job creation ‘bar’ to clear in order to keep the unemployment rate steady. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 7% from 6.5% in March, despite the flat jobs reading. This reflects the combination of continued population growth and a higher participation rate (share of 15+ population employed or looking for work).

Youth unemployment in Alberta remains elevated, rising to 14.7% last month. That’s down from the peak of 20% last July, but well above historical norms.

Regional divide - Alberta stays ahead of the pack

Last month, job losses were concentrated in Quebec, while Ontario snapped back after some big losses to start the year.

Given the month-to-month volatility, it’s best to look at longer-term trends to tease out regional patterns.

The general pattern is that Alberta remains an outlier, with employment in the province up 3.5% above year ago levels versus -0.1% in the rest of Canada. Annual job gains have been driven recently by full-time and private sector positions (both north of 3.5% y/y).

Employment in Quebec and B.C. are down y/y, and Ontario’s growth has slowed (see the chart below). Following Alberta, the next fastest y/y job growth comes from Nova Scotia at 2.4%.

Thoughts and Alberta forecast implications

With ongoing trade tensions and the labour market softening, the country will need a shot in the arm from business investment—including an acceleration of major projects. As we’ve noted, consumers and the government cannot indefinitely support growth.

While the Bank of Canada sounded more hawkish last week, it must also consider a stumbling job market. Our concerns about Canadian growth are why we have the Bank on hold this year despite new inflationary pressures.

Alberta’s economy is weathering the geopolitical turmoil better than most, aided by a lower effective U.S. tariff rate, a resilient resource sector, and interprovincial inflows. While the month-over-month pace has slowed, jobs have held up better than elsewhere.

The surge in oil prices since the war in Iran is boosting producer revenues and has raised expectations for production. We view the lift to revenues as a net positive for Alberta’s economic growth, albeit less so than in the past, as oil and gas producers stay disciplined with their capital budgets.

Despite the latest uptick in unemployment, we still see this as a year of rebalancing in the labour market. With population growth cooling, we expect downward pressure on the unemployment rate later this year as the inflow of job seekers slows.

Overall, recent data are tracking roughly in line with our March forecast of  3.1% for Alberta employment growth, though there’s some modest upside risk to our 6.4% unemployment rate forecast in 2026.

April details (all numbers seasonally adjusted) 

Canada

• Employment Change: -17,700 
• Year-over-year growth: +0.3% 
• Unemployment Rate: 6.9% (+0.2 p.p.)

Alberta

• Employment Change: +1,000 
• Year-over-year growth: +3.5% 
• Unemployment Rate: 7.0% (+0.5 p.p)

Calgary (3-month moving average)

• Employment: +14,200 (Change from previous month)
• Year-over-year growth: 6.1%
• Unemployment Rate: 6.7%

Edmonton (3-month moving average)

• Employment: -3,600 (Change from previous month)
• Year-over-year growth: 4.6%
• Unemployment Rate: 7.1%

The trivia section will be in The Seven coming out later today.