Following up on last week’s discussion on Alberta’s retail sector, it is clear that a significant boost to recreational spending in the province has come from the growth in international tourism over the past year.

Today’s Twenty-Four analyzes current patterns in foreign arrivals and their broader economic impact, coinciding with my upcoming visit to Jasper next week to present Alberta’s economic outlook at the 2026 CIC National Credit Conference.

Alberta experiencing a surge in overseas visitors

Last year, Alberta saw a sharp 23% increase in visitors* from countries other than the U.S. This growth significantly outpaced the 6.6% national average for 2025, in part driven by expanded direct air access to Alberta (particularly to Calgary).

So far this year, Alberta's non-U.S. visitor numbers dipped slightly in Q1 but remained near peak levels, contrasting with the below-pre-pandemic levels seen across the rest of Canada (see the chart below). Overseas travel is likely to stay elevated this year although we expect the rate of growth to slow from last year’s pace.

U.S. visits to Alberta also reached record highs last year and into early 2026, primarily driven by air travel, while the rest of the country still trails 2019 benchmarks.  

U.S. travel took a hit last year

In 2025, persistent trade tensions prompted a significant number of Canadians to forgo trips to the United States, leading to a nationwide decline in visits exceeding 25%. This downward trajectory was mirrored in Alberta, where the count of residents returning from the U.S. reached its lowest point in three years during Q1 2026 (see the chart below).

According to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), Canada recorded the most substantial drop in U.S.-bound travelers in 2025, with Germany, India, and France also seeing notable decreases. As a result, the United States saw its first post-pandemic decline in international tourism, which contributed to a 4.6% reduction in visitor spending relative to 2024.  

More money being spent locally

The rise in international arrivals and a preference for domestic travel among Canadians have boosted local spending. Alberta's foreign resident spending grew by 14.3% last year—notably higher than the 9.6% national increase—thanks to higher accommodation and transportation expenditures. This propelled Alberta’s share of national foreign spending to a record 13.4%.

These travel patterns, coupled with factors such as faster population growth than the rest of Canada, have influenced other segments of the domestic economy. In Q1 2026, Alberta saw an 8.5% year-over-year (y/y) increase in restaurant and bar sales, building on the 6% growth recorded in 2025.

Prices naturally influence the broader sales narrative, but restaurant operators appear to have shouldered rising operational expenses (particularly higher food costs), rather than fully shifting that burden to consumers, a trend we have previously examined. Despite a general downturn nationally, Alberta posted a strong 3.9% real (inflation-adjusted) y/y increase in restaurant and bar sales in Q1, representing the second-strongest growth among all provinces (see the chart below).  

Outlook

Despite these gains, the industry faces substantial staffing challenges especially in remote areas and resort communities. The accommodation and food services sector posted a 5.6% job vacancy rate at the end of last year, still elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Some employers in Banff and Canmore point to tightened temporary foreign worker rules and a shortage of affordable housing as primary barriers to seasonal hiring. To deal with the crowds, the Town of Banff is taking extra control measures in anticipation of popular occasions, like Canada Day, in 2026.

In Jasper, rebuilding efforts following the 2024 wildfires are largely on track, yet the local community remains deeply concerned about labour availability, escalating costs, and housing.

Rising jet fuel prices, fueled by Middle Eastern instability, are anticipated to add pressure to the finances of Canadian travelers who are already grappling with elevated living costs. This will weigh on international visits to Alberta this year, while simultaneously encouraging more domestic travel within the country.

The outlook for Alberta’s hospitality and tourism industry remains positive. Data from Travel Alberta indicates that the province's visitor economy expanded by 6% last year, outpacing national growth rates to reach a record high. We expect tourism activity will stay robust through 2026, but the rate of growth will slow from last year’s pace. Travel Alberta expects growth of 2.8% this year, supported by continued international travel and the continued trend of Canadians forgoing cross-border trips in favour of local travel.

*All quarterly data in today’s report has been adjusted for seasonal variations. Visitors refers to non-resident international travelers entering Canada that include both same-day excursions and overnight stays.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The month of June was named in honour of Juno, the Roman goddess of marriage, childbirth, and the queen of the gods.

Today’s trivia question: Which country is the most dependent on tourism?