Edmonton — Geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty have led to a period of slower growth and higher inflation in Canada. Alberta is not immune to these challenges, yet is still on track to finish 2026 in a relatively strong position. So far this year, the province is far outpacing the national average across a range of indicators, including employment, population and retail sales growth.

ATB Financial's latest Economic Outlook projects Alberta's real GDP will grow by 2.6 per cent in 2026, well above the 0.9 per cent projected nationally. Looking ahead to 2027, the provincial economy is expected to expand by 2.3 per cent, outpacing national growth of 1.5 per cent.

Alberta's economic growth is anchored by a resilient energy sector, which is expanding production while benefiting from higher crude prices and improved market access for oil and LNG. While there is further upside, ATB Financial maintains a cautious forecast on investment until final decisions are made on a new West Coast pipeline and oil sands projects that would fill it.

Tariffs and trade uncertainty remain a major constraint on growth in Canada, though Alberta continues to face a lower tariff burden due to energy exemptions and lower exposure to targeted goods like steel, aluminum and autos. Even still, some businesses facing sectoral tariffs of up to 50 per cent will face significant impacts.  

Despite stronger growth in Alberta, there are challenges like ongoing affordability pressures, expectations of higher interest rates and youth underemployment. Many businesses have also cited the uncertainty over the October referendum as having an impact.  

The trade war and energy crisis have highlighted Canada’s role as a safe, reliable global partner. There is upside to the forecast if Canada meets the moment—executing on major projects and attracting the capital needed to secure the country’s position as a global supplier of choice.

“Alberta’s economy is faring relatively well given the geopolitical circumstances,” said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. “But that does not mean every Albertan is feeling better off. Higher living costs continue to put pressure on households, while global instability is adding a layer of uncertainty that businesses cannot ignore.”

“It should be clear by now that the world wants what Canada has to offer—abundant, safe and responsibly produced resources,” Parsons said. “If recent signals and policies turn into actual project approvals and real investment, there is upside to our growth forecast for both Alberta and Canada.” 

For the full report, read the complete Alberta Economic Outlook.