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Weathering the Storm: Alberta's economy in 2024

ATB Financial Economic Outlook

By ATB Financial 20 March 2024 2 min read

Edmonton—Despite facing inflation and interest rate headwinds, Alberta's economy continues to forge ahead and remain a growth leader in Canada. This resiliency is the result of a surge in population, energy sector activity, and growth in emerging sectors.

In ATB Financial’s latest economic outlook, Alberta's economic growth is expected to outpace the national average. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent this year, a slight moderation from the estimated 2.5 per cent growth rate of 2023. The province is poised for an uptick of 2.7 per cent in 2025.

The forecast delves into several key themes shaping Alberta's economic landscape:

Not in the clear

The inflation threat has mostly receded, with rate cuts expected around mid-year. Higher borrowing costs are intensifying financial strains, leading to increased insolvencies and tempering both consumer spending and business investment.



In 2024, significant improvements in oil exports are expected as TransMountain Expansion comes online. Housing construction, gaining momentum from late 2023, will surge further this year due to soaring demand fueled by strong population growth. Moreover, growth is expected in a number of burgeoning sectors, such as hydrogen, biofuels, petrochemicals, emissions reduction, technology, aviation, and tourism.


Foggy conditions

Amidst heightened uncertainty, events like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, China's unsteady economy, and upcoming elections in the U.S. and other countries contribute to an unpredictable global landscape. While inflation has decreased, it is not yet back to target and interest rate cuts could be delayed.

"While Alberta's economy hasn’t been unscathed by the inflation battle, it has performed relatively well. Risks are elevated, but we see significant momentum this year and heading into 2025,” said ATB Financial's Chief Economist, Mark Parsons. “Improved market access for energy and a broader economic base bode well for Alberta’s near-term growth.”

About ATB Financial

With $60.4 billion in assets, ATB Financial is a leading financial institution that started in Alberta with the focus of putting people first. Our success comes from our more than 5,000 team members who love to deliver exceptional experiences to over 800,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB provides expert advice, services and products through our many branches and agencies, our 24-hour Client Care Centre, four entrepreneur centres and our digital banking options. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond.

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ATB Financial, Media Relations

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