indicatorThe Owl

Alberta’s population projected to get larger and older

Alberta will add about 2.0 million residents between now and 2046

By ATB Economics 31 August 2020 1 min read

Despite slower growth over the short term due to the pandemic and low oil prices, a new set of population projections for Alberta prepared by Alberta Treasury Board and Finance estimate we will add about 2.0 million residents between now and 2046.

Annual growth will average 1.4 per cent with our total population rising to 6.3 million. Over half (54 per cent) of the increase will come from international immigration.

Relatively weak economic conditions will, however, keep annual population growth to about 0.9 per cent for the next three years.

The projections include three potential trajectories with the numbers above drawn from the medium-growth scenario.

In the low-growth scenario, Alberta’s population still expands, but to 5.6 million residents by 2046 instead of 6.3 million. In the high-growth scenario, our population swells to almost 7.5 million.

One of the most important changes in the years ahead will be the ongoing aging of the population with the number of seniors doubling by 2046. Over this period, the percentage of Albertans 65 and over will rise from about 13 per cent to 20 per cent.

Population aging will impact everything from health care and housing to the labour market and retail trade. This is not a problem to be solved, but a demographic fact. The more we anticipate how the aging of the population will affect the demand for different goods and services, the better we will be at seizing the opportunities and mitigating the challenges it will create.

In the low-growth scenario, Alberta’s population still expands, but to 5.6 million residents by 2046 instead of 6.3 million

In the low-growth scenario, Alberta’s population still expands, but to 5.6 million residents by 2046 instead of 6.3 million


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