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Bank of Canada downgrades global forecast

Given everything going on, the downgrade is relatively mild and global growth is still moving at “a very strong pace.”

By Rob Roach, ATB Economics 28 October 2021 1 min read

Citing the ongoing pandemic, transportation bottlenecks, supply shortages and high inflation, the Bank of Canada has tuned down its global economic forecast.

In the July edition of its Monetary Policy Report, the Bank was projecting global GDP would grow by 6.9% this year followed by 4.4% in 2022. As of the October edition of the report released yesterday, global growth is expected to be slightly lower at 6.5% in 2021 and 4.3% next year.

Given everything going on, the downgrade is relatively mild and global growth is still moving at “a very strong pace.”

Lurking beneath the overall numbers, “progress remains choppy and uneven. The recovery has a firmer foundation in advanced economies than in emerging-market economies (EMEs) because of higher vaccination rates and more stimulative policy measures. Labour market improvements continue to be uneven and incomplete in many countries.”

The Bank also lowered its forecast for Canada’s economic growth.

In July, the Bank was projecting Canada’s real GDP would rise by 6.0% this year followed by 4.6% in 2022. The current forecast is for 5.1% growth in 2021 followed by 4.3% next year. “The pace has been revised down since the July report because of more severe supply disruptions and weaker foreign demand.”

Answer to the previous trivia question: According to Investopedia, “the money supply is all the currency and other liquid instruments in a country's economy on the date measured. The money supply roughly includes both cash and deposits that can be used almost as easily as cash.”

Today’s trivia question: How high did the national youth unemployment rate get earlier in the pandemic?

The global economy is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022

The global economy is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022


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