Dour forecast for house prices in Calgary and Edmonton
Unemployment, lost income, lower international and interprovincial migration, and uncertainty in the wake of the pandemic will all weigh on housing demand
By ATB Economics 9 July 2020 1 min read
A recent Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report forecasts major declines in the average resale price of homes in both Calgary and Edmonton over the next three years.
Keeping in mind that “the housing outlook is subject to unprecedented uncertainty due to the pandemic,” the federal housing agency estimates the average price of a home in Calgary will be between 10 and 24 per cent lower in 2022 than in 2019. The range is basically the same for Edmonton at -11 to -26 per cent.
The forecasts are based on information available as of June 5, 2020.
Going into the pandemic, the average price of a home in Edmonton was already down by 3 per cent in 2019 compared to the year before and by 4 per cent in Calgary.
Unemployment, lost income, lower international and interprovincial migration, and uncertainty in the wake of the pandemic will all weigh on housing demand. In addition, the risk of price erosion is higher in Calgary and Edmonton than other major markets due to “exposure to the energy industry.”
The average resale price of a home in Calgary in 2019 was $443,254 and $364,558 in Edmonton.
Although a lot can change when it comes to these forecasts and the sale price of individual properties will vary depending on a wide range of factors, the current outlook points to a buyer’s market in Calgary and Edmonton over the near term.