Oil prices slip but still strong
The lower prices are linked to the fear that slower economic growth will erode demand
By Rob Roach, ATB Economics 12 August 2022 1 min read
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price benchmark averaged US$99 per barrel in July, down from $114 in June.
Prices over the first 10 days of August have been softer yet, averaging around $91. The lower prices are linked to the fear that slower economic growth will erode demand.
Despite the pullback, prices remain well above where they were in 2020 and 2021.
While a lot could change before the end of the year—and notwithstanding day-to-day volatility—our current forecast sees WTI hovering around $100 for the next few months.
Factors that could push up the price include, but are not limited to, reduced Russian supply due to more effective sanctions, better-than-expected economic news, turmoil in oil-producing states such as Kazakhstan and Libya, and hurricane-related disruptions in the U.S.
Some of the factors that could cause prices to fall include additional COVID lockdowns, worse-than-expected contraction in global activity, and a supply boost in the wake of a successful Iran nuclear deal.
As always, we will be keeping a close eye on the many variables that can cause oil prices to swing.
Answer to the previous trivia question: According to the Alberta Energy Regulator, Alberta's five oil refineries had an estimated total combined throughput of 515,400 barrels per day.
Today’s trivia question: When was the eligible age for Old Age Security changed from 70 to 65?