As we’ve noted repeatedly in our updates on Alberta’s oil production, changes in output from one month to the next may seem more ominous than they actually are due to the seasonality of the industry. Between weather conditions, maintenance schedules and wildfire activity, there can be large swings in monthly production that do not reflect underlying trends.

The recently released oil production numbers for May are a case in point.

Wildfires forced some producers to curtail production, while planned maintenance work (which often takes place in May) also constrained output. Compared to April, production fell by 10% in May from 4.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 3.6 mb/d. May’s pullback, however, does not change the overall trajectory of oil production in the province.

To get a sense of the longer-term trend, we look at year-over-year (i.e., comparing the same month in each year) and year-to-date (i.e., comparing total production from January to May in each year) trends.

Compared to May 2024, average daily output was down by 2.1% in May 2025. This was the first year-over-year decrease since September 2024 and likely reflects the impact of wildfires disrupting production in some parts of the province.

Looking at the year-to-date trend, average daily production was 3.1% higher this year than over the first five months of 2024. This was the fifth year-to-date increase since the disruptive effects of the first year of the pandemic. As such, the underlying trend has been toward more production and we see this as a meaningful driver of Alberta’s economic growth this year.

Key to this has been the increased transportation capacity provided by the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) project. Planned expansions to Enbridge’s Mainline and Express systems will also increase the takeaway capacity from Alberta, while Trans Mountain is looking at ways to add new capacity.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Before it was associated with liquefied natural gas, Kitimat, B.C. was known for, among other things, its large aluminum smelter.

Today’s trivia question: With more than 13,800 kilometers of active pipe, what is the capacity of Enbridge’s Mainline oil pipeline network?