We reported on Friday that, weighed down by tariff uncertainty, Alberta’s labour market lost jobs for the second straight month in August.

In today’s Twenty-Four, we reflect on where things stand eight months into the year.

Employment in Alberta is higher over the first eight months of 2025 with the average number of jobs up by 62,000 (+2.5%) on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. The increase may come as a surprise since the number of jobs in August was 5,300 lower than at the start of the year. A jump in employment in late 2024 that has carried over into this year explains the YTD lift.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, has averaged 7.3% so far this year, up from 6.9% over the same period in 2024. The average masks a great deal of month-to-month volatility, with the monthly unemployment rate rising to 8.4% in August (the highest outside the pandemic period since 2016).

Even though average employment has increased this year, the unemployment rate went up as the number of job seekers grew by more than the number of jobs.

As a result, the number of Albertans unemployed at any one time this year has averaged 201,000 people, up from 187,000 over the same eight months in 2024.

Part-time positions were down by 0.8% YTD while full-time employment increased by 3.2%.

The number of jobs held by Albertans aged 15-24, has increased by 4.2% YTD, but the youth unemployment rate has gone up from an average of 14.4% last year to 16.2% due to a 6.4% increase in the youth labour force. 

Looking ahead, our expectation is that the provincial labour market will continue to struggle with an elevated unemployment rate next year as employment growth, while positive, is not sufficient to absorb recent and future labour force growth. We now expect the unemployment rate to average above 7% next year.

Stay tuned for our full forecast to be released on Wednesday.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The September full moon is often called the Corn Moon.

Today’s trivia question: Which was higher in Alberta in August: the unemployment rate for men aged 15-24 or for women aged 15-24?