Our December Alberta Economic Outlook is out!

Alberta’s economy will continue to grapple with trade adversity in 2026, but is expected to once again grow faster than the national economy according to ATB Financial's latest economic outlook.

Our forecast is for the Alberta economy to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 outpacing 1.6% and 1.8% for Canada as a whole. Next year, we see the Alberta economy resuming its GDP growth in per capita terms, and a rebalancing of the labour market as the unemployment rate moves lower. Forecasts are always tricky, and in appreciation of the heightened uncertainty, we all also run low/high scenarios.

While trade uncertainty will remain an overarching theme, the focus is shifting to execution on promises by Canadian policymakers to build major projects faster, expand exports overseas, make Canada the top energy superpower, and reduce barriers to trade within Canada. Hence our (motivational) theme song.

Rising oil production and enhanced access to Asian markets will continue to lift Alberta exports, the natural gas sector will get a boost from LNG exports and rising demand. Further, the Alberta economy will benefit from a U.S. effective tariff rate that is lowest among Canadian provinces.

The longer-term diversification story, with expansions in areas like aviation, food processing, tourism, and technology, also underpins the growth forecast.

On the other hand, oil and gas capital spending is forecast to remain flat next year amid weaker oil prices and an ongoing focus on efficiency. Trade tensions (including uncertainty about the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) are weighing on business investment more generally, while the cost of living remains a top concern.

In addition, population growth is expected to ease further next year, slowing the pace of consumer spending and housing activity. Housing starts will hold above historic norms, but fall from 2025’s record level.

The story in the labour market has been more jobs, but even more people - keeping unemployment elevated. That dynamic has recently shifted. After a summer of losses, job growth has surged in the last three months - pulling the unemployment rate rate lower. We see the annual unemployment rate falling to an average of 6.5% next year from 7.2% this year.

As usual, we will be following these developments with regular quarterly updates to our forecast throughout the coming year.

Answer to the previous trivia question: At 5.3 million tonnes and 55% of the national total, Alberta produced the most barley in 2025.

Today’s trivia question: In a recent poll, what percentage of Canadians cited the rising cost of living as a top concern? (hint: check out the Outlook!)