Alberta's economy
Finding a footing in turbulent times
By Mark Parsons 26 June 2025 1 min read
From wars to tariffs to OPEC decisions, there is no shortage of external turbulence buffeting the Alberta economy. That said, with the trade war deescalating since early spring, we have slightly upgraded our Alberta growth forecast.
Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. That’s an improvement from 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, in our March forecast.
Alberta's economy is feeling the effects of the trade war and the outlook for oil prices has softened, but it is expected to weather the turmoil better than other provinces more exposed to U.S. tariffs. As a result, Alberta will outpace the 1% growth we are forecasting for the Canadian economy as a whole this year.
Growth will be underpinned by booming residential construction, rising energy production, and ongoing (albeit slower) population growth. Natural gas producers will benefit from the start of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the B.C. coast and increased demand from AI data centres. A broadening of Alberta’s economic base, with recent expansions in sectors such as food processing, petrochemicals, and technology, supports the longer term outlook.
With that said, the unemployment rate in Alberta is expected to stay elevated (averaging 7.3% this year) as employers remain cautious on hiring and more people enter the workforce.
While U.S. trade policy has been highly disruptive, it has also shone a spotlight on Canada’s domestic challenges that long pre-dated President Trump’s second term. In particular, there will need to be a sustained improvement in private capital investment in Alberta and Canada to drive future economic growth and productivity. Successfully fast-tracking major projects represents a clear upside to our forecast.
As always, we have run low and high case scenarios to account for the high degree of uncertainty. In the low case, trade tensions escalate, while in the high case, tensions ease and more major projects proceed.
You can access the full report here.
Answer to the previous trivia question: The first international shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) took place in 1959 from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to the United Kingdom.
Today’s trivia question: How much LNG can the largest tanker ships hold?
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