Alberta’s economy is feeling the negative effects of the trade war, but is still expected to grow faster than other provinces. Our new Alberta Economic Outlook forecasts that the provincial economy will grow by 1.9% this year and 2.1% in 2026.

There have been both positive and negative developments since our previous quarterly update. The good news is that U.S. tariffs have remained more limited in scope than feared in the spring, thanks to exemptions on Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) compliant goods. While not immune, Alberta’s economy also remains less exposed to the sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, softwood lumber, autos and copper.

On the other hand, the labour market has weakened since the start of the year and an elevated unemployment rate is expected to persist as job creation struggles to keep pace with the growing population. Further, China has imposed new tariffs on canola, U.S. lumber duties have increased and oil prices have fallen on both demand worries and increased OPEC+ supply.

Notwithstanding the trade-related challenges, we see three factors contributing to stronger growth in Alberta than the rest of Canada:

1) Population growth (although moderating from recent peaks) continues to fuel consumer demand.

2) The influx of new Albertans is also driving residential construction, with housing starts on pace to set a new annual record and remain relatively strong next year.

3) Improved market access for the energy sector, through initiatives like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, boosting international exports.

The potential for major projects in energy and infrastructure to create new jobs is a major upside, but we're waiting for shovels to actually hit the ground.

Looking beyond the current trade challenges, emerging industries like technology and tourism will support Alberta's growth.

Nationally, we now forecast real GDP growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Overall, the ATB Economic Outlook paints a picture of an Alberta economy that is resilient in the face of trade uncertainty but pain is nonetheless being felt, particularly in terms of an elevated unemployment rate. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: CFCN television started in Calgary on September 9, 1960 as the first independent television station in Canada. It began broadcasting at 6:00 p.m. with a 30-minute newscast and two movies. The station later joined the CTV Network in 1961 and became known as CTV Calgary.

Today’s trivia question: When did CKUA Radio officially launch?