Given the tumult in financial markets, cratering oil prices and rising U.S. recession fears, it feels like the economic ground won’t stop shaking beneath our feet.

Meanwhile, large parts of the economy continue to move forward—not as if nothing else is going on, but despite it.

Agriculture is a prime example. Trade war or no trade war, there are fields to prepare, calving to be done, moisture conditions to be checked and so on.

While there are likely other U.S. tariff shoes to drop (President Trump announced a reduced tariff rate of 10% for most countries yesterday, but increased tariffs on China), Alberta’s agriculture sector has so far been spared as long exporters can demonstrate they are compliant with the rules of origin requirements in the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (which may be easier said than done).

Somewhat ironically, Canada’s countertariffs on U.S. goods mean that imports of wheat, barley, canola from the U.S. face a 25% Canadian tax. This could increase domestic demand for Canadian wheat, canola and barley as buyers seek to avoid the tariffs.

Canadian agriculture and agri-food producers will also have an advantage over foreign suppliers who face reciprocal U.S. tariffs. Canadian countertariffs, however, may increase operating costs.

In the meantime, China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and cake and peas plus a 25% tariff on pork and seafood. Alberta sold China 16% ($408 million) of its canola oil and cake exports last year; 25% ($138 million) of its pea exports; and 4% ($26.1 million) of its pork exports.

As Alberta’s farmers and ranchers wrestle with the trade policy developments, the latest price data from Statistics Canada continue to put major crops on a different track from the cattle sector.

The average price received in Alberta for wheat, canola and barley was 13-16% lower in February than the five-year average (though still above pre-pandemic levels) whereas prices for cattle for slaughter and feeding were 31-40% higher (see the charts below).

The latest outlook from Agriculture and Agri Food Canada has Canadian exports of major field crops growing by 5% this crop year based on strong global demand. The same outlook, however, points to a “notable decline in the prices of most major field crops.” The outlook predates the latest escalation of the global trade war by Donald Trump this month, so there is downside risk to this forecast. The next update from Agriculture and Agri Food Canada comes out on April 17.

For cattle producers, the relatively small size of the current North American cattle herd will help support prices going forward.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Wilhelm II was the German Emperor in 1909 when the average effective U.S. tariff rate was 23% (versus 22.4% at the moment).

Today’s trivia question: Which country do Angus cattle originally come from?