The ongoing “stabilization” of Alberta’s housing market we were anticipating back in December is on track so far this year.

After several years of rapid population increase and booming residential construction, 2026 has been marked by a slower rate of population growth and a pullback in housing starts.

In the resale market, benchmark prices have leveled off and inventory has increased, pushing the dial from a clear seller’s market toward one that is more balanced. 

Demographic demand

Alberta’s population was growing by about 4.7% two years ago, but this has fallen to less than 1%.

From a housing demand perspective, it could be a lot worse. Only two other provinces (Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan) posted population growth in the first quarter with the national population contracting.

A key change has been a drop in non-permanent residents (NPRs) due to the federal government’s efforts to reduce their presence in Canada. In Alberta, the NPR count was down by 35,000 between April 2025 and April 2026. With virtually all NPRs renting, the drop will be felt most acutely in the multi-family sector.

Population change is not the only factor affecting the demand for housing, but it is a key one as a slower pace of growth reduces the pressure on the existing housing supply.  

Still building, just not as fast

In light of the slower population growth and record-high housing starts last year, it’s not surprising that the pace of new construction has also slowed.

After hitting an all-time high of over 55,000 starts last year, Alberta is on track (as of May) to see about 46,000 new homes started in 2026. This is somewhat higher than our current forecast of 42,000, but we anticipate builders will continue to react to the slower population growth and reduce the number of new projects they take on over the balance of the year.

It lumps in Saskatchewan and Manitoba with Alberta, but according to the latest reading of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association Housing Market Index (HMI), there has been a large decline in sentiment with the multi-family HMI for the Prairie provinces now in “pessimistic” territory.

Note that, while lower than last year, housing starts in Alberta in 2026 are forecast to come in higher than the five-year average of 35,000 units per year set from 2020 to 2024 and construction continues to catch up to past population growth.

In absolute terms, multi-family starts in Alberta are down the most over the first five months of the year at 8,400* below the same period in 2025 (when the building boom was in full swing) compared to 3,600 for single-detached starts. In percentage terms, however, the pullback is about the same at a little over 20% lower for both categories.

Price plateau

While down about 3% from the record set at the start of 2025, the price of a benchmark** home in Alberta has been pretty steady since the start of the year.

Keeping in mind significant variation from market to market, it’s a very different story for Canada as a whole, with the benchmark price peaking in early 2022, falling by 21% since then, and on more of a downward track so far this year than in Alberta.

We expect the benchmark price to remain relatively stable this year as the market rebalances.

Finding its balance

“Months of inventory” measures how long it would take to sell all currently listed homes at the current sales pace if no new listings were added.

According to this indicator, Alberta has been moving from a seller’s market, averaging 3.5 months of inventory over the first five months of the year compared to 2.8 over the same period in 2025 and 2.3 over the same period in 2024.*** The national average so far in 2026 is 5 months of inventory, which is closing in on a buyer’s market.

Another measure of market dynamics—the sales-to-new-listings ratio—is also showing that Alberta has moved from a seller’s market to a more balanced one.  

Bottom line - From rapid expansion to stabilization

In terms of the overall economic impact of housing on the Alberta economy, residential construction activity is slowing, but will remain stronger than the levels that prevailed between the recession of 2015-16 and the recent population boom. There will be bumps along the way as the sector adjusts to more normal levels of population growth and as buyers absorb the supply that has been added.

The resale market, meanwhile, has been moving toward a more balanced state between buyers and sellers, but has avoided the kind of price corrections seen in hyper-expensive markets like Vancouver and Toronto.

*Seasonally adjusted annual rate, all centres with 10,000+ population.

**Benchmark prices are generated by the MLS® Home Price Index model. Calgary and Edmonton are the only sub-markets in Alberta for which HPI data are available. The HPI is based on the value home buyers assign to various housing attributes, which tend to evolve gradually over time. It therefore provides an “apples to apples” comparison of home prices across the entire country. Each month, the HPI uses more than 15 years of MLS® System data and sophisticated statistical models to define a “typical” home based on the features of homes that have been bought and sold. These benchmark homes are tracked across Canadian neighbourhoods and different types of houses.

***A seller’s market is typically characterized by having less than four months of inventory; a balanced market four to six months; and a buyer’s market more than six months.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The first World Cup of football/soccer was held in 1930.

Today’s trivia question: When was the last time the men's World Cup final was held in the United States?