Last month, we noted that the Canadian Real Estate Association is expecting Alberta's resale housing market to remain in cooling mode this year. In today’s Twenty-Four, we shift our focus to new home construction across the province by analyzing the most recent housing starts data from the CMHC.

Housing starts hit two-year lows

Housing starts in Alberta moderated for the third consecutive month in April, reaching their lowest levels in two years at 38,539 units (seasonally adjusted at annual rate). Year-to-date (YTD), starts have averaged 42,586 units, representing a 23% decrease compared to 2025.

The pullback should not be surprising. Builders previously ramped up activity to meet a population surge, with starts climbing 33% in 2024 and another 15% in 2025, peaking at a record of nearly 55,000 units. As population growth has slowed, construction momentum has naturally followed, resulting in a steady decline since last September.

Even with the slowdown, starts remain high by historical standards, sitting 26% above Alberta's 10-year average (see chart below).  

Regional developments

Calgary has been the primary source of the provincial slowdown. In April, Calgary's starts reached their lowest point since June 2023, with declines across all housing types—most notably in apartments, which contributed to a one-third YTD drop in total starts.

Edmonton has followed a slightly different path. After a delayed homebuilding response to rapid population growth, its deceleration has been a bit less dramatic. While year-to-date starts are currently 16% below 2025 figures, a recent surge in row housing last month helped soften the overall decline.

Elsewhere in the province, Red Deer and Grande Prairie showed stronger activity, whereas Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Wood Buffalo, and rural regions remained relatively stable through April.

Declines driven by multi-units, particularly rentals

Multi-unit starts, particularly purpose-built rentals, drove the majority of the new home construction boom over the last two years and reached an all-time high in the spring of 2025. Since then, activity has continually moderated, down for the third straight month in April 2026 to reach their lowest level since June 2023. So far this year, they stand 23% lower than last year’s levels with apartments feeling the most significant impact.

In terms of market types, rental unit starts have led the decline since the second quarter of 2025 in Alberta and the rest of Canada. Conversely, Alberta's condominium and ownership sectors rose slightly in the first quarter, moving in the opposite direction of the national trend. This contrast was even more evident over the past two years, a period when home ownership starts in Alberta grew by 25% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025, while the rest of the country saw continued contraction (see chart below).

Outlook

We have long expected home starts to decline from last year’s record of 55,000. If current conditions persist, there is some downside risk to our last forecast in March when we projected starts to come in at nearly 45,000 units in 2026. Despite this, annual figures are expected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels, particularly for single-family homes.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Disinflation is a slowdown in the rate of price growth (inflation), not a decrease in overall prices (which is deflation).

Today’s trivia question: When was the first National Building Code published in Canada?  

Looking closer to Alberta, nothing new was announced on the MOU between Alberta and Canada other than the fact that they continue to work towards implementation. Progress has been made on some elements, but the original April 1, 2026 deadline on carbon pricing and Pathways was not met.

The fiscal update addresses a major concern we’ve had: who is going to “build baby build”?  The reality is that there is already a shortage of tradespeople today and this is before the promised ramp-up in investment.

The federal government announced nearly $6 billion over five years to recruit, train, and hire up to 100,000 new Red Seal tradespeople by 2030-31, including grants to help offset the cost of training and hiring new apprentices. Financial support helps, but will it be enough to lure youth into the trades? Further, will it be enough to encourage retention given that many people who start these programs do not finish?

Bottom line: The right target is set: more investment is needed, and more workers are required to build these projects. But now we wait for execution and the needle to move on the chart above.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Approximately 13% of Indigenous-owned firms in Alberta operate in retail, as per the recent report From Readiness to Reach: Indigenous Trade, Partnership and Economic Growth in Alberta.

Today’s trivia question: Who was the Minister of Finance who oversaw the first federal budget in 1867?