Canada produces a lot of oil—the fourth largest amount of any country. Within Canada, Alberta is the country’s main producer at about 84% of national output.

The addition of 590,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity via the recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) has enabled a significant increase in Alberta’s oil production.

The latest data from the Alberta Energy Regulator show that Alberta produced 187,000 more barrels per day in August 2025 than 12 months earlier. At 4.2 million barrels per day, August’s output was the highest on record for that month.

The upward trend is also apparent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis with daily production 4.1% higher over the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2024.

Oil production in Alberta is expected to keep growing. Estimates vary, but a recent Alberta Energy Regulator forecast points to an additional 300,000 barrels per day between 2025 and 2029, in line with our forecast. However, as TMX reaches capacity, the industry is expected to encounter pipeline constraints. According to the recently-released ATB Capital Markets Fall Energy Sector Survey, a majority of respondents expect oil pipeline constraints before 2029 and rank crude egress bottlenecks as the third most prominent risk factor for the industry.  

A potential game changer in this regard is a new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast that could add a million or more barrels per day of transportation capacity that is being championed by the Alberta government.

As energy expert Peter Tertzakian points out, Asia-Pacific refineries are hungry for Alberta oil, though filling a major new pipeline would require billions of dollars of investment.

Answer to the previous trivia question: A majority interest in Imperial Oil was sold to the Standard Oil group in the United States in 1898.

Today’s trivia question: When was the first oil pipeline built in Canada?