In a world of near-instant communication, finding out what happened over a month ago always seems to be a bit of a letdown. This seems especially true given last week’s tariff announcements and subsequent market reaction (not to mention nosediving oil prices).

But this is the nature of most economic data. And—even if it’s not as up-to-date as we’d like—looking at how things have been playing out provides the hard foundation from which to look ahead at what might be next.

In that spirit, the latest report from the Alberta Energy Regulator shows that oil production in Alberta broke yet another seasonal record in February.

Daily oil production averaged just over 4 million barrels per day in February—2% higher than 12 months earlier and a new record for the month of February.* The increase is part of a long-term upward trend with year-over-year production rising in 11 of the 12 previous months.

The strong production in February took place against a series of tariff announcements including the Executive Order of February 1 imposing a 10% U.S. tariff on Canadian energy that was paused for 30 days on February 3.

Ongoing U.S. demand, added pipeline capacity and more options to sell to Asian buyers via the B.C. coast has been spurring the production increases. No new tariffs were imposed on Canada last week and producers can avoid the 10% U.S. tariff on Canadian energy products through compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. This gives Alberta produces an advantage over other heavy oil options and will support a relatively tight light-heavy price differential.

As we look ahead, although a trade war and OPEC’s recent decision to increase its production will have a detrimental impact on the sector’s revenue and on government royalties as both factors undermine oil prices, we are still expecting production to increase this year. If low oil prices persist, this would put downward pressure on strategic capital expenditures, constraining future production growth.

*The highly seasonal nature of oil production in Alberta means it is best to compare the same months to one another rather than change from one month to the next.

Answer to the previous trivia question: China produces the most automobiles globally, based on the volume of vehicles manufactured, with over 26 million units in 2023.

Today’s trivia question: When was the last time the West Texas Intermediate price benchmark posted a monthly average below US$50 per barrel?