As we wait for the federal budget to come out this afternoon (watch for our summary of its economic implications in tomorrow morning’s Twenty-Four), it’s an opportune time to take a look at a key driver of both the Canadian economy and federal revenue: Alberta’s oil production. 

The latest data from the Alberta Energy Regulator show that Alberta produced 126.4 million barrels of oil in September or about 4.2 million barrels per day. This was the highest level of production in a September ever and 10.3% higher than the previous September. The double-digit jump was due in part to a large maintenance-related dip in production in September 2024.

One month of production does not indicate a trend, so we need to look at things over a longer time period. Sure enough, average daily output has increased 27 out of the 33 months from January 2023 to September 2025 on a year-over-year basis (see the graph below).  

The upward trend is also apparent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis with average daily production 4.7% higher over the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2024—the highest YTD level through September on record (see the graph below).  

The rise in production is providing an economic boost, but a focus on capital discipline and efficiency, combined with uncertainty about future transportation capacity, are keeping capital spending in “sustaining” rather than “expansion” mode.

Despite this, oil production in Alberta is expected to keep growing. Estimates vary, but a recent Alberta Energy Regulator forecast points to an additional 300,000 barrels per day by 2029, in line with our September forecast. Significant growth beyond this would require more transportation capacity via, for example, another pipeline to the B.C. coast.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The federal government’s annual budget covers the time period April 1 to March 31.

Today’s trivia question: What was the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil in October (in U.S. dollars)?