Global oil supply is under severe strain, with the Middle East conflict disrupting approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd). The limited bypass options around the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, are causing this pressure to be felt globally by both producers and consumers. Consequently, the West Texas Intermediate oil price benchmark is trading at over US$110 per barrel this morning.

In contrast to the global uncertainty, strong oil production provided a vital lift to Canada's national GDP in January; without oil and gas extraction, GDP growth would have essentially been flat.

Today’s Twenty-Four takes a quick look at oil production in Alberta over the first two months of this year.

Alberta's oil output, according to the latest Alberta Energy Regulator numbers, averaged 4.2 million bpd over the first two months of 2026—this is the highest on record and up 3.3% relative to the first two months of 2025. Growth was widespread, encompassing both oil sands and conventional output.

This upward trend is a continuation of growth seen since the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) in mid-2024. Last year, production increased by a robust 4.2%, aided by higher shipments to Asian markets. Given the spike in demand from Asia following the outbreak of the Iran war, the TMX system is now likely to reach full operating capacity much faster than expected.

Plans to expand Alberta's oil production are in place, driven by the growing demand for Canadian crude, even as the U.S. attempts to increase oil output from Venezuela.

In light of this, we recently examined the economic impact of building another major oil pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast. For a deep dive into this idea, see the recent report we did with Peter Tertzakian and his team at Studio.Energy.

Our baseline forecast, however, projects that real oil and gas exports will rise by an average of 2.2% annually in 2026 and 2027, before leveling off around 2030 due to current pipeline constraints.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The first Cadbury Easter egg was launched in 1875. 

Today’s trivia question: The world record for the largest chocolate Easter egg was set in Italy in 2011. What was the circumference of the egg?  

Answer to the previous trivia question: The first Cadbury Easter egg was launched in 1875. 

Today’s trivia question: The world record for the largest chocolate Easter egg was set in Italy in 2011. What was the circumference of the egg?