Eating out more often? You're not the only one! Just last weekend, my wife and I decided to skip cooking at home and go out for a date night instead!

Today’s Twenty-Four explores activity across restaurant and bar sales in Alberta over the first five months of the year.

Following a slow start to the year, revenues* for food services and drinking establishments saw a significant increase in March and have continued to rise in April and May. Compared to the first five months of 2024, year-to-date (YTD) restaurant sales in Alberta have grown by 5.2%.

It’s not just higher prices. In fact, so far this year, average consumer prices of foods purchased at restaurants have remained mostly flat from 2024 levels both in Alberta and nationally. It is, however, important to note that while restaurant prices have posted minor increases this year, this comes after a 5.9% price increase in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024. 

Stripping out price impacts, real (inflation-adjusted) restaurant sales were up by 4.6% in Alberta and 5.8% in Canada on a YTD basis. 

Restaurant activity is likely being boosted by a few factors: Strong population growth and an increased sentiment among Canadians to travel more domestically, making fewer trips to the U.S. Additionally, Alberta has seen a rise in American travelers flying into the province during the first half of the year.

Furthermore, the Oilers playoff games likely kept local bar and restaurant spending levels elevated in May.

As revenues continued to rise, the labour market has also been making strides this year. Relative to the first half of 2024, employment in the accommodation and food services sector was up by 4.9% in Alberta. Having said that, labour challenges persist as the sector posted the highest job vacancy rate relative to all industries in the first quarter.

We expect a pullback in large consumer purchases, specifically motor vehicles, once the effects of front-loading to preempt tariff-related price increases subside this year. Nevertheless, services, such as the restaurants and bar sector, are forecast to hold up relatively well for the rest of 2025 under the backdrop of services being largely shielded from tariffs, continued population growth and a greater propensity to spend locally. Key revenue generators during the summer months are expected to include events such as the Calgary Stampede, Taste of Edmonton, and K-Days.

*All data in this report has been adjusted for monthly seasonal variation.

Answer to the previous trivia question: David Card (2021) and Robert Mundell (1999) are the two Canadians who were awarded the Nobel Prize for their distinguished work in the economic sciences.

Today’s trivia question: Which Canadian city has the most number of restaurants on a per capita basis?