Consumer spending in Alberta has been surprisingly resilient and outpaced the rest of the country. We attribute this growth to faster population growth, improvements in the labour market and a shift in travel preferences. While the spending data has been encouraging, our outlook is more cautious. The latest momentum will be difficult to sustain given the recent increase in inflation, which has also increased the odds of a potential interest rate hike, and the slowdown in population increases.

In this edition of The Twenty-Four, we examine the latest retail trade data released by Statistics Canada last week.

Alberta’s retail increase strongest in Canada

Following an impressive performance in the first quarter, Alberta saw retail spending surge by 9.3% in April relative to the same month last year. April’s year-over-year increase outpaced all other provinces and marked the strongest growth since February 2023.

Supported by the spike in April, Alberta posted a 6.5% year-to-date (YTD) increase relative to the first four months of 2025 - more than doubling the national rate of 3.1%.

Gains spread beyond gasoline stations

The surge in gasoline prices, fueled by the conflict in Iran, drove gas station revenues to a three-year high in April and 8.5% higher on a YTD basis. The most significant boost to Alberta's retail sector, however, came from motor vehicle dealerships, with YTD revenues up by 9%. While the used market remained stagnant, new vehicle sales in April reached their highest point since records began in 2017. Additionally, the combination of high fuel costs and refreshed federal incentives pushed up new electric vehicle sales by 33%.

It’s not just spending on vehicles and gasoline. Core retail sales—which exclude these items—also gained momentum, up 5% YTD through April. This expansion was broad-based across most major sub-categories.

To get a more timely read on provincial retail trends, we analyze ATB consumer Mastercard transaction data, which provides an indication of retail activity excluding motor vehicle sales. The latest readings suggest that Albertans continued to increase their spending into May.

The real story also holding…for now

The persistent rise in living costs and inflation remains a significant concern for Canadians, including those in Alberta. National retail prices increased by 4.1% in April, largely due to soaring gasoline costs, marking the most rapid acceleration since the pandemic. However, even when adjusted for these price changes, Alberta's retail sales were still up by a solid 3.9% on a YTD basis through April.

With the headline inflation rate moving higher in May, we expect this to weigh on household finances as we get deeper into the year.

Bottom line: Consumer activity in Alberta has been stronger-than-expected through the early months of this year, despite mounting concerns regarding the cost of living. Our latest forecast calls for a 4.5% increase in retail sales this year, following a 3% gain in 2025.

Total real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending, however, is forecast to rise by only 2.3% as some factors are expected to create headwinds. These include further intensification of cost-of-living pressures—driven notably by higher energy prices—alongside an ongoing deceleration in population growth.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The last time the men's World Cup final was held in the United States was in 1994 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena (where Brazil defeated Italy). The U.S. is co-hosting the 2026 World Cup with the final match scheduled to be played in New Jersey.

Today’s trivia question: Which country has won the most men’s FIFA World Cups?