If shopping at IKEA for closet organizers on a Saturday afternoon is any indication, I can attest that retail sales are going strong in Alberta.

The length of the checkout line at IKEA is not, of course, an accurate measure of sector-wide retail activity, so we turn to the numbers collected by Statistics Canada, which show a strong start to the year.

Seasonally-adjusted retail sales in Alberta spiked 3.5% in January over the previous month to lead all provinces. The recent uptick coincides with stronger job market performance in the province.

What’s next?

It’s too early to tell if the pick up in January is the start of another strong year for retail sales growth, but our forecast is for annual sales to expand by 4.2% in 2026, down just slightly from 4.4% last year as labour market improvements, ongoing (albeit slower) population growth and higher-income households support spending.

The wildcard is the impact of the Iran war on energy, food and other prices as we get deeper into the year. Consumers, for example, will be paying more at gas stations in March and this could lead to less spending in other areas (unless households turn to savings or credit to make up the difference).

The national picture

Seasonally-adjusted retail sales in Canada grew by 1.1% in January compared to December.

The flash estimate for February suggests month-over-month sales grew again in February by 0.9%, which will provide some lift to Q1 GDP.

As with the Alberta numbers, the national picture will be affected by the degree to which the Iran war disrupts consumer prices and spending.

  Answer to the previous trivia question: Alberta recorded its longest quarterly streak of positive net interprovincial migration (dating back to 1961) from Q1 1995 to Q 2009—58 straight quarters.

Today’s trivia question: In what year (dating back to 1961) did Alberta record its largest quarterly gain from interprovincial migration?