Yesterday, we reported that the cost of living continues to be a primary concern for Canadians. This edition of the Twenty-Four examines retail spending trends over the first nine months of the year to assess whether consumers in Alberta have responded to this concern by tightening their wallets.

Alberta's retail sales* saw a strong start in Q1, likely due to consumers "front-loading" purchases in anticipation of tariffs. However, sales slowed in Q2 before picking up again in Q3. Despite this Q3 improvement, sales remained 0.4% below the Q1 level.  

Compared to last year’s levels, year-over-year (y/y) growth has slowed from 7% in Q1 to 3.4% in Q3. This cooling trend aligns with slower population growth.

A deeper look into sub-sectors reveals diverging themes. Some sectors, such as food and beverage, building materials, and health and personal care, have seen spending moderate after a relatively strong Q1. Conversely, spending on autos, clothing, furniture, and sporting goods remains relatively high.

Looking now at year-to-date (YTD) growth, we find that Alberta’s total retail spending increased by 5% over the first nine months, with nearly all sub-sectors contributing to the rise. Motor vehicle dealerships were the leading factor here, accounting for 56% of the total gain. The significant increase stemmed primarily from new car sales, which were partly supported by a 2.8% appreciation in the average consumer price of all passenger vehicles.

The notable exception was gasoline stations, where spending decreased by 2.3%. This decline was primarily due to a substantial 10.3% drop in Alberta’s gasoline prices this year following the removal of the consumer carbon tax.  

Alberta's retail store spending, when adjusted for inflation, has stagnated in recent months, with the September level standing 0.7% shy of the peak recorded in March. Despite this, YTD real retail store spending in Alberta is up a healthy 3.2%, ranking third highest among all provinces behind Manitoba and BC.

Looking ahead, ATB Mastercard transaction data suggest a slight uplift in non-auto spending during October. Despite a moderation in population growth from 2024's record gain, an addition of 120,000 new people this year is expected to keep sales above last year’s levels for the remainder of 2025.

For 2025, spending levels are tracking higher than our September Outlook. However, growth is expected to moderate in 2026, consistent with the anticipated slowdown in population growth. We’ll cover this in our next Quarterly Economic Outlook that will be released in December.

*All data in today’s report have been adjusted for seasonal variations

Answer to the previous trivia question: The word memorandum comes from Latin and means “that which is to be remembered.”

Today’s trivia question: What term is used to describe a retailer that sells many different products under the roof of a large physical location and is often part of a chain?