indicatorThe Twenty-Four

Burgeoning

Alberta’s population growth coming from all corners

By Siddhartha Bhattacharya, ATB Economics 28 January 2025 3 min read

We learnt last month that Alberta’s population expanded by 3.9% (from the year prior) on October 1, 2024, far surpassing the national increase of 2.3% and leading all provinces.

Now we have a gauge of how population levels fared within the province with new data from Statistics Canada showing sub-provincial population estimates as of July 1, 2024.

Calgary’s population soared by more than 100,000 (or 6.0%)in 2024*, the fastest among all 41 census metropolitan areas** (CMAs) in Canada, to reach almost 1.8 million last year. This comes after a 5.8% increase in 2023. In fact, nearly half of Alberta’s annual provincial increase (over 204,000) occurred in Calgary last year. Relative to five years ago, the number of Calgarians jumped by 18.3% in 2024 vs 2019 levels.

It was a fairly similar story for Edmonton as the city’s population rose by almost 73,000 (or 4.7%) in 2024, fourth fastest growth rate among all CMAs in the country and up 13.4% from 2019.

Together, over two-thirds of Calgary and Edmonton’s explosive population gains were from international migrants (mostly net non-permanent residents) last year. The two cities were also hotspots for attracting Canadians from other parts of the country as they welcomed nearly 35,000 net interprovincial migrants, representing nearly 80% of Alberta’s total interprovincial gains in 2024.

It was not just the CMAs that have experienced rapid population growth. Over the last five years, Canmore (+14.3%) and Sylvan Lake (+11.5%) attained top spots across all census agglomerations (CAs)*** in Alberta for growth.

Housing affordability has become a major factor driving population movements within Canada with elevated borrowing costs and home prices, as we have discussed in detail. 

There are some signs that this ‘chasing affordability’ trend is unfolding within Alberta.  Population growth in the Edmonton CMA, a relatively inexpensive urban housing market, accelerated from 3.9% in 2023, and its housing market has heated up. Further, we have witnessed noticeable increases not just in major CMAs but across smaller jurisdictions last year. There were about 11,500 (+2.8%) more Albertans living in CAs last year, a pick up from the 2% pace set in 2023. In fact, outside of Wetaskwin, every CA posted population increases last year, led by Wood Buffalo (+4.7%) and Grand Prairie (+3.8%). Despite Calgary posting massive population gains, the city lost a net 729 people to other parts of the province last year - the most since 2008.  Meanwhile, Edmonton’s CMA gained 2,924 from the rest of the province.

Robust population gains continue to keep the housing market strong in Alberta. Looking ahead, we expect new federal immigration targets and moderating interprovincial gains to slow Alberta’s population growth from 4.4% in 2024 to 1.9% this year, but still outpacing the rest of the country. We expect the slowdown in international migration to be felt most in major centers, and that people will continue to be drawn to less expensive housing markets. 

*All data in today’s report is July 1 of a certain year to July 1 of the following year. For example, 2024 refers to the period from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024.

** A census metropolitan area (CMA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a population centre (known as the core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000, of which 50,000 or more must live in the core. 

***A census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a population centre (known as the core). A CA must have a core population of at least 10,000 based on data from the previous Census of Population Program.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The LEGO “brick” was patented on January 28, 1958.

Today’s trivia question: Tiff Macklem became the Bank of Canada’s tenth Governor on June 3, 2020. How long is his term?

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