In this week’s The Seven… 

• Searching for the podium - The latest job numbers
• Going for gold - Economic growth as a defence strategy
• Hockey sticks - Oil, propane and LNG
• Skiing through tough conditions - Canadian consumers
• Fast and slow skating lanes - Inflation
• Interesting Fact: Resilient beef demand amid higher prices
• Chart of the Week: Eating out versus dining in

“We can be victims of U.S. tariffs and AI disruption, or we can lean into structural change, expand our internal market, diversify our trade, embrace new technology and raise our productivity.”

--Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, Remarks, Feb 5, 2026

Macklem’s remarks headline this week’s The Seven, taking the spot of our weekly song. It echoes Carney’s Davos speech and yesterday’s Twenty-Four.

The point is simple: Canada cannot sit still and hope things will work out with tariffs and other thorny geopolitical issues. Instead, it must build its economic muscle to secure its prosperity and gain influence on the global stage.

On that note, we look for inspiration from our Canadian athletes the next two weeks (go Canada!) and our sports metaphors are waxed and ready for this week’s Seven.

Searching for the podium - Canadian labour market still a bit wobbly

It’s tough to get any traction in the current labour market. Uncertainty is running high, and employers are cautious with their hiring. After a resilient 2025, employment pulled back last month in Canada as we reported this morning. The silver lining is that the unemployment rate fell, as slower population growth is contributing to fewer job seekers in the market.

Alberta has pulled ahead of the pack, leading all provinces in both month-over-month and year-over-year job gains in January. Recent job growth has put a sizable dent in the unemployment rate, now slightly below Canada’s at 6.4% (vs. 6.5% Canada) after hitting a post-COVID peak of 8.2% last August. This is a notable shift, as the story in Alberta has been more jobs but even more people. With population growth slowing, we see more balance in the labour market. January’s unemployment reading of 6.4% is consistent with our 2026 forecast of 6.5% (it averaged 7.2% last year).

In the United States, the official stats have been delayed,* so we look to other sources for clues. They paint a picture of a slowing job market. The National Employment Report from the payroll firm ADP showed that private payroll growth was below expectations with just 22,000 jobs added in January and the manufacturing sector losing 8,000 positions. The latest report from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also points to a cooldown.

Why isn’t this getting more attention? Partly because the unemployment rate still remains low by historic standards (4.4% in December). Job growth has slowed, but so has the population, keeping the labour market relatively tight. Last week, the Fed noted that, despite weak job growth, “the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.”

*As a result of the most recent U.S. federal government shutdown (which ended Tuesday), the U.S. The Department of Labor  is releasing its monthly jobs report on February 11 rather than today when it was originally scheduled to come out.

Building economic muscle: Teaming up with Studio.Energy on a new GDP series

On the global stage, Canada’s economy finds itself in a high-stakes competition of its own. The world is shifting away from an era of rules-based integration toward one defined by rivalry and power politics, and there's urgency for Canada to build a stronger, more powerful economy.

In yesterday’s Twenty-Four, we shared highlights from Part 1 of our recent collaboration with Studio.Energy on the series Canada’s Economy Under Siege: GDP as a Defence Strategy, exploring why economic growth is “a proxy for a nation’s resilience, and ability to navigate a world of competing interests.” While Canada’s economy has grown in size, it hasn’t grown nearly as much in strength. To reach the podium, the focus must shift towards creating a more competitive and attractive environment for capital, and building new export capacity that bolsters productivity.

Part 2 of the series, “GDP 101,” is now available here, breaking down the components of GDP and their impact on the economy.

Hockey sticks - The sudden rise in energy exports to Asia

What happens when you build new export infrastructure? Hockey stick charts.

We’ve seen a surge in oil, propane and LNG exports to Asia entirely due to the build out of new pipelines and export facilities - Trans Mountain Expansion (oil), Ridley Island Propane Export Facility (propane) and LNG Canada Phase 1 combined with Coastal Gas Link (liquefied natural gas).

We’ve been talking about this for some time, but with new data coming in, we decided to put them all in one chart pack.

This is progress, but it’s still a drop in the barrel. The U.S. is by far the largest export market for Canada’s energy.  

Canadian consumers - Skiing through tough conditions

How does it feel?  It’s a question Bob Dylan asks in his classic “Like a Rolling Stone.”

If you ask Canadians, they would say it feels pretty uncertain and pretty darn expensive. 

Layer on interest rate hikes since COVID and the fact that, only recently, have wages exceeded inflation, it’s no wonder many Canadians and Albertans feel they’re just getting by.   

Here’s the good news. Interest rates have come down from the peaks (though many are still renewing mortgages at higher rates), the labour market has picked up in Alberta, equity markets have surged, and inflation has eased.

Consumers have been remarkably resilient through all of this - retail sales rose 4.7% through November last year. Squint at the chart and you’ll notice a spike in November retail sales and the November/December ATB consumer tracker. This could be a one-off, and we're watching if the upswing is sustained before changing our fairly cautious views for 2026.  

Peering further into our 2026 crystal ball, we expect that job growth will be steady, but the unemployment rate will fall as fewer job seekers enter the market. Wages are expected to outpace inflation again this year.

Canadian inflation - Fast and slow skating lanes

“Everything has gotten so much more expensive!” It’s a common statement, but it’s not entirely true.

The Consumer Price Index is a composite index tracking the prices of a typical consumption basket.

Looking at the broad categories, food and shelter costs stand out as the items driving inflation higher since 2021. Those are big ticket categories, comprising a whopping 46% of the index.

Other things, like clothing and footwear, have held fairly steady.

Meanwhile, some items like phone services, child care costs, and video equipment have gone down in price.

Why does this matter? For stretched consumers, it could lead to substitution towards cheaper things, or things that have gone up less in price.

We’ve explored in detail how people are chasing less expensive housing across Canada, including in Alberta, leading to shifts in migration patterns and the housing market itself. For another interesting case study, see our chart of the week!  

Interesting Fact: High beef prices, resilient demand

Here’s an economic puzzle (as I prepare for my talk to the Alberta Feeders Association). Beef prices have surged, yet demand in North American has been incredibly resilient. This is not your standard textbook response. In fact, a recent study on beef prices from Kansas State University comes to this conclusion: “Our demonstrative analysis attributes 14% of the 2024 to 2025 (beef) price increase to a supply decrease and 87% to an increase in consumer demand.”

One potential explanation is the protein craze. Health experts like Peter Attia are promoting the importance of protein rich diets, and beef offers plenty of that.

We don’t know how much consumption has changed in Alberta, but we have pretty detailed prices. A kilogram of beef striploin in Alberta was 33% more expensive on average in 2025 than three years earlier in 2022.* For a kilogram of ground beef, it was 46% higher.

*Source: Statistics Canada, Monthly average retail prices for selected products, table 18-10-0245-01 and ATB Economics

Chart of the Week: Eating out versus eating in

Grocery prices have shot up much more than menu prices since COVID. Our hypothesis?  Restaurants are likely absorbing the cost through thinner margins to compete for customers.

How have consumers responded? Since COVID, growth in restaurant sales have far exceeded grocery sales as shown in our Chart of the Week. The ratio of restaurant to grocery sales has jumped to the highest level since 2009.

Is this due to smaller menu price increases, leading to people abandoning cooking at home? Is it due to people valuing social experiences in a post COVID world? Or could it be the surge in tourism in Alberta boosting restaurant sales? All are plausible explanations. We grant this topic to a keen student for their next econometrics paper (send us an email with your findings).

Answer to the previous trivia question: The new Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena that was finished just in time for the 2026 Winter Olympic has a seating capacity of 11,800.

Today’s trivia question: When did Peter Tertzakian’s best-selling book “A Thousand Barrels a Second” come out?