I was grateful to be back as a keynote speaker at yesterday’s 2026 Economic Outlook, Calgary’s annual forecast and networking event hosted by Calgary Economic Development (CED), and participate in a panel discussion with noted political commentator Andrew Coyne, moderated by CED President and CEO Brad Parry. The event brings together 1,200+ people from across the city’s business community to break down economic trends and what they mean for the year ahead.

Uncertainty remains the main headwind. The persistent threat of trade conflicts, particularly with the U.S., has created a challenging environment for long-term business decisions, small business confidence, and securing investment. The fear and unpredictable “whiplash” of trade policy can be more damaging to sentiment than the actual tariffs themselves.  

So, what’s the path forward? I used the analogy of rewiring a home to illustrate how I see 2025 as the year we’ve begun to get our house in order; we’ve spent time identifying the problems (our ‘tripwires’) in Canada, which is the first step. The focus must now shift to execution in 2026—not just continuing to identify our challenges, but getting started on the rewiring to get things done—namely delivering on major projects and expanding into overseas markets.

The tripwires 

There were three consistent challenges identified at yesterday’s Outlook event that we need to address: 

Investment: Much has been made about Canada’s GDP per capita problem - the economy is growing slowly, but struggling to keep up with the population. But I argued that what we really have is an investment problem. Sustained economic growth cannot keep coming from more consumer or government spending; it requires investing and attracting more capital into Canada. As even the recent federal budget acknowledged, real business investment in Canada has been lagging way behind the U.S. and the construction of major infrastructure has been "stalled by arduous, inefficient approval processes," curbing investment. 

Productivity: Sustained increases in labour productivity are vital for real per capita income growth. It turns out that energy-related industries have some of the highest levels of productivity and wages in Canada. We should play off these resource strengths, while making a concerted effort to continue to diversify into resource areas like hydrogen, petrochemicals and critical minerals.  

Market dependency: For all the talk about diversifying into new markets, the reality is that the U.S. will remain by far our largest. In an “elbows down” chart I showed that 74% of Canada’s exports have gone to the U.S. so far in 2025 during Trump’s second term, down only slightly from 76% in 2024. The Prime Minister has set an ambitious goal to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. A concerted effort to expand trade services and leverage international agreements is necessary to find new, reliable global trade partners and build critical infrastructure to support these markets, especially in light of the crucial Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review in 2026.

The AND economy

Diversification takes time, but it is happening. We’ve seen a variety of sectors outside of oil and gas gain momentum in recent years, for example: food manufacturing is a bright spot, adding value to our agriculture products; the tech sector has taken off; tourism is performing well this year, with more in-province travel and continued international visits; and aviation is an emerging area with new aircraft and drone technology produced in Alberta.   

The point is that Alberta is well positioned to be an energy leader AND still grow other sectors. We have the people; record inflows of migrants have landed in the province. The challenge is matching people to the jobs available (i.e. addressing the skills mismatch), which over time should bring down Alberta’s elevated unemployment rate. 

Calgary's role: Leading the execution

Calgary’s opportunity in all of this is unique. The city grew by 6% last year, by over 100,000 people, and is continuing to add residents. The demographic growth is reshaping the labour market, driving job creation but simultaneously pushing unemployment rates higher as the market seeks balance. This new labour pool provides the workforce necessary to successfully build—provided we get better at matching skills to demand, especially in trades.

To truly compete globally, innovation will be Calgary’s growth engine, and investment the key focus for Canada. Accelerating the city's innovation strategy and reducing regulatory barriers are critical. Calgary has already seen rapid growth in its tech workforce. By combining world-class energy expertise with the city’s rapidly maturing tech sector and being proactive about expanding our global trade services, Calgary will help power a future-ready Canadian economy in 2026. 

For more information, check out this Calgary Herald article on the event, including my outlook.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Côte d'Ivoire is the world’s largest exporter of cacao.

Today’s trivia question: What Canadian city led North America in tech talent growth between 2021 and 2024?