In yesterday’s Twenty-Four, we looked at how an increase in Canada’s exports to the U.S. in January and February was likely boosted by efforts to get ahead of looming tariffs with the subsequent pullback in March reflecting their arrival.

But the U.S. is not our only trading partner that has imposed new tariffs on Canadian goods. In response to the implementation of a 100% Canadian tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and a 25% tariff on its steel and aluminum products in October 2024, China placed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and cake (but not the seeds themselves) and peas and a 25% tariff on Canadian pork and seafood products. The Chinese tariffs were announced on March 8 and took effect on March 20. Canada exported $2.9 billion of the affected products to China last year.

Trade data released yesterday by Statistics Canada only goes to the end of March, so it does not show how the new tariffs are impacting Canada’s agricultural exports to China, but a recent Canadian Federation of Independent Business survey found that “China's retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural and seafood products are affecting about a third (36%) of Canadian agricultural businesses, with nearly one in four (23%) taking a direct hit.”

As we wait for more agricultural data, the numbers we have are telling us some interesting things about our recent trade with China.

Imports

Canada’s total imports from China were up by 6% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, but imports of the tariffed products have gone down.

Imports of the Chinese steel and aluminum products covered by the Canadian tariff were 54% lower in the first quarter of 2025 than over the same period in 2024.

Imports of Chinese EVs* have also fallen, dropping from $373 million in the first quarter of 2024 to just $1.3 million over the first three months of this year.

*The list of EVs subject to the Canadian tariff uses product codes that are more specific than those in the publicly-available trade data so some non-electric vehicle imports may be included.

Exports

The new tariffs on Canadian agricultural products will no doubt cut deeply into our exports to China.

In the meantime, total exports to China have increased, up by 20% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter last year.

The main reason for this is the Trans Mountain Expansion oil pipeline project entering into commercial operations in May 2024. The expanded pipeline allows for greater exports of oil to Asia via the B.C. coast and has enabled Canada’s exports of oil to China to go from zero in the first quarter of 2024 to over $1.3 billion over the first three months of 2025.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Between Grande Prairie and Medicine Hat, the former had the larger population as of July 1, 2024 (69,377 versus 67,909).  

Today’s trivia question: What is the diameter of the Trans Mountain pipeline?