Small business confidence in Alberta was trending upward over the back half of 2024 and the early part of 2025. It then plunged last March when Trump’s tariff threats were pointing to a national recession and uncertainty was spiking.

Confidence readings have been choppy since, but much higher than the record low set last March.

Conducted between January 6 and 12, 2026 (after the capture of Maduro by the U.S. and talk of the negative impact of a rejuvenated Venezuelan oil industry on Alberta, but before Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if a free trade deal is made with China), the CFIB's long-term small business confidence index* for Alberta came in at 55.7 last month. This is over 30 points higher than the 25.2 reading from March 2025, but still somewhat weaker than where things stood before the trade war got underway.

Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger in 12 months outnumber those expecting it to be weaker. The index for Alberta has been above 50 in four of the last six months compared to only twice during the previous six.

The outlook over the next 3 or 4 months is weaker than the 12-month outlook, with the short-term index** coming in at 49.0.

The short-term index fell to just 12.9 in March 2025 but has since climbed back to almost where it was before the trade war.

Nationally, the long-term index has followed a pattern similar to Alberta’s with confidence cratering last March (the long-term index dropped to 25.5), but bouncing back since with readings above 50 four times in the last six months. 

Insufficient demand (domestic or foreign) and a shortage of skilled labour were the two most common obstacles to business and production expansion cited by Canadian small businesses at 54% and 42%, respectively.

According to the CFIB, “full-time staffing plans point to a modest employment uptick, with a larger share of employers planning to hire (15%) than to lay off staff (10%), illustrating a positive net balance for the first time since August 2025.”  

*Survey question: How do you expect your firm to be performing in 12 months compared to now?

**Survey question: Allowing for normal seasonal influence, what are your business performance expectations over the next 3 or 4 months?

Answer to the previous trivia question: In December 1995, the House of Commons officially recognized February as Black History Month in Canada.

Today’s trivia question: True or false: The 2026 Winter Olympics will be the first Olympic Games to be officially co-hosted by two cities.