The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has released its Housing Market Outlook for 2026 and it points to a slower, but still strong, level of new construction in the Calgary and Edmonton CMAs (the two Alberta markets included in the analysis).

The CMHC cites the same factors for the pullback outlined in our December forecast: slower population and job growth combined with the surge in new supply over the previous two years.

For Alberta, our forecast is for 45,000 starts this year, down from a record high of 54,900 in 2025, but still above the 10-year trend. While the CMHC does not provide an Alberta total, looking at midpoint estimates for Calgary and Edmonton, we appear to be more cautious in our forecast. 

Despite the slowdown, housing starts in Calgary and Edmonton are projected by the CMHC to remain above their historical averages.

It’s a different story in Ontario where “overall housing starts are projected to fall to near 2‑decade lows in 2026” and British Columbia where “starts are expected to drop sharply, reaching historically weak levels by the end of the forecast period.”

Calgary CMA:

The CMHC report does not present a base case forecast, but rather a high and low range for housing starts in Calgary this year of between 23,000 and 30,500 compared to 27,684 in 2025.

According to the CMHC, “developers will proceed cautiously, prioritizing the completion of existing projects as inventories rise. Economic uncertainty, and potential changes to land use approvals, as the policy environment around blanket rezoning evolves, will also influence their decisions.”

Edmonton CMA:

The CMHC sees housing starts in Edmonton coming in between 16,500 and 24,500 this year versus 21,337 in 2025.

The report notes that “Edmonton’s homeownership remains relatively affordable [and that] ground-oriented housing (single-detached, semi-detached, row and townhouse units) will continue accounting for a large share of new starts, reflecting ongoing demand. Apartment construction, largely driven by purpose-built rental projects, is expected to remain stable in the near term.”