While Alberta’s overall inflation rate has come down from the levels seen a few years ago, a browse of the Easter candy section at the grocery store points to a different reality. You aren’t imagining it: the chocolate egg hunt you’re planning will be more costly this year.

According to Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, “Easter confectionery prices appear noticeably higher than last year, with many products showing increases of 10% to 25% on a per-unit basis, and in some cases more when adjusted for weight.”

The disconnect between cooling inflation and rising candy costs provides a look at how global agricultural impacts, including the price of cocoa, translate to our holiday shopping carts.

Cocoa rollercoaster

The primary culprit behind increased chocolate prices is the volatility of the global cocoa market. In a move that saw cocoa outperform even high-growth assets like Bitcoin, futures prices reached a historic peak in 2024, soaring to record highs of over US$12,000 per tonne, about four times what it had been worth a year prior.

This surge was driven by a perfect storm of disruptions in West Africa, the region responsible for about 70% of the world’s cocoa. As Jacqueline Jacek, founder of JACEK Chocolate Couture explained to us, the region is grappling with both the implications of climate change and plant disease devastating crops. This isn't a short-term challenge: even after replanting, trees take about five years to begin bearing fruit. At the same time, demand from emerging markets like China and India is rising.

While global prices since the initial spike have retreated to around US$3,200 per tonne, relief has not yet reached the retail shelf.

The lag effect (and shrinkflation)

But why hasn’t chocolate become cheaper if the raw ingredient’s price has fallen? The delay is largely due to manufacturing cycles; the Easter chocolate found in stores today was planned and produced months ago when cocoa prices were higher.

To protect profit margins without drastically raising the sticker price, many brands are turning to reducing the size or quantity of a product, also known as shrinkflation: smaller chocolate bars, hollower eggs, or recipe modifications that use less cocoa content. Some manufacturers are even substituting cocoa butter with vegetable oils—or exploring lab-grown cocoa to future-proof their supply chains.

While cocoa is the most obvious input of concern, higher energy and labour costs are also having an impact.

The bunny knows no borders

Despite rising costs, consumers appear unwilling to let go of their holiday traditions. In a recent release from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Easter spending is expected to hit a record US$24.9 billion this year in the U.S. Candy remains the leading shopping category, with 92% of consumers planning to purchase.

On a per-person basis, American shoppers are budgeting a record high of $195.59 for the holiday, driven primarily by a desire to maintain family traditions even as economic conditions fluctuate. Interestingly, even half of those who do not celebrate the holiday still plan to hunt for Easter-related sales on food and clothing.

Answer to the previous trivia question: McDonald’s restaurants introduced the Big Mac in 1968.

Today’s trivia question: Joni Mitchell just won a Lifetime Achievement Award at the 2026 Junos. In what town in Alberta was she born?