Semi-annually in the spring and fall, ATB Cormark Capital Markets conducts an Energy Sector Survey to gauge current industry sentiment.

The Spring 2026 Survey garnered responses from executives representing 24 energy services companies, 22 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 17 institutional investors. The Survey was led by Tim Monachello, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Managing Director, Institutional Research, Energy and Industrial Services and Technology. Responses were collected from March 18, 2026, to April 1, 2026.

The global energy landscape is undergoing a shift, and Canada is at the centre of it. Recent supply disruptions, specifically the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, have forced a reassessment of supply chains and where countries get their energy resources, putting a spotlight on Canada as a safe-haven energy producer.

This perception seems to have driven increased sentiment across the sector over the last several months. The results of the Spring 2026 Energy Sector Survey reveal unusual, and more optimistic, alignment across the ecosystem:

• 95% of oil and gas producers expect to grow production (the highest level in survey history).
• 75% of service firms anticipate higher activity levels in 2026.
• 82% of investors have turned more bullish on energy investments over the past six months.

Beyond the boom and bust

The oil and gas industry has evolved significantly in recent years, and is moving toward less of a boom-and-bust cycle. This maturity means companies will likely target mid-single-digit growth rates in strong market conditions, maintaining strong balance sheets and setting disciplined budgets—62% of E&P survey respondents are assuming WTI crude prices of US$64.99/bbl* or less for 2026 capital budgets. In turn, they’ll conserve capital when prices fall while maintaining steady activity when markets are strong.

This has clear implications for our forecast. Despite the surge in oil prices, we do not expect to see a boom in energy investment.

*WTI oil prices have averaged US$77 per barrel so far this year and closed at over US$93 per barrel yesterday (April 22).

Egress to growth

The world’s desire for more stable, reliable Canadian energy is no longer a question of demand; it is a question of Canada’s ability to deliver. While the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline is already running at near-full capacity, this progress is meeting a looming deadline. A growing majority (67%) of surveyed experts now expect Canada to face pipeline capacity constraints again before 2029. Oil egress was the second most cited risk after federal energy and climate policy. Overall, the survey suggests that the industry is looking for more certainty surrounding pipeline capacity and government policies before committing to longer-term growth opportunities.  

The benefits of improving Canada’s energy export infrastructure are significant. Our recent report in collaboration with Studio.Energy shows that expanding Canada’s oil export infrastructure by 1.5 million barrels a day could add an average of $31.4 billion to national real GDP each year over the next decade, and increase employment by 112,000 jobs, on average, over the same period. The benefits extend beyond energy-producing provinces like Alberta, driving demand for Canadian steel and other equipment alongside professional services like engineering and finance.

Seizing the moment

Overall, the survey reinforces Canada’s position as a safe-haven jurisdiction, with the opportunity to respond to growing concerns over global energy insecurity. Global disruptions have sharpened the realization that Canada cannot meet our broader economic ambitions without better utilizing our natural resources. Providing more policy certainty and addressing transportation capacity constraints can expand Canada’s role as a reliable partner while also addressing the nation’s long-standing economic growth challenges. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: The first Earth Day was celebrated in 1970.

Today’s trivia question: According to the Spring 2026 Energy Sector Survey, which cancelled oil pipeline project is viewed by respondents as more likely to be revived: Northern Gateway or Keystone XL?