With international exports accounting for over a third of Alberta’s annual GDP and the United States acting like a bull in a china shop with regard to trade policy, new export data released this morning point to a rough second quarter.

After rising 18% year-over-year (y/y) in Q1, the value of Alberta’s international merchandise exports dipped by 11% y/y in Q2.

It’s tempting to link the drop in Q2 to U.S. tariffs, but while they are part of the explanation, oil prices were the main factor.

Lower oil prices helped push down the value of Alberta’s international energy exports by 12% y/y in Q2 (the West Texas Intermediate oil price benchmark was 21% lower y/y in Q2). And, because energy products are such a large component of Alberta’s exports, their decline was responsible for 79% of the overall drop in y/y export value in Q2.

Unlike in Q1 when exporters looking to get ahead of U.S. tariffs (both actual and threatened) sent Alberta’s total foreign sales higher across almost all subsectors, sales in Q2 went down in almost all categories.

While we can’t precisely isolate the impact of tariffs and the accompanying uncertainty, a large portion of the 16% drop in y/y non-energy exports to the U.S. in Q2 is likely due to the dampening effects of chaotic trade relations and U.S. tariffs.

Meanwhile, Alberta’s non-energy exports to countries other than the U.S. increased by 3.5% y/y in Q2.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Economists call a good where demand falls when income rises an inferior good. These are goods that consumers tend to purchase less of as their income increases, often because they can afford to switch to higher-quality alternatives.

Today’s trivia question: What was the value of Alberta’s energy exports to Mexico over the first half of 2025?