Alberta stands out as one of only three provinces that didn’t experience population decline in the first quarter of the year.

Its population is, moreover, projected to grow much faster than the country as a whole in all 10 of the scenarios considered by Statistics Canada.

The growth, however, will not be evenly spread across the province.

This is evident in the latest population projections prepared by Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (TBF), which we explore today.

Centre of the action: The Calgary-Edmonton corridor

Running from Sturgeon County north of Edmonton to the Municipal District of Foothills No. 31 south of Calgary, with Red Deer roughly in the middle, the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor* is home to almost four million people, or 78% of the provincial population.

The corridor has been, and is projected to remain, the focal point of population growth in Alberta. It grew by 1.7 million people from 2001 to 2025, accounting for 87% of Alberta’s total population growth over that period. The rest of Alberta also grew, but by a more modest 249,000 people.

From 2026 to 2051, the corridor is projected to add another 1.7 million people to reach 5.7 million residents.** The rest of Alberta will add just over 166,000 people over the same period to reach about 1.3 million residents.

Getting more granular

TBF also provides projections for 132 “local geographic areas” (LGAs).*** We’ve simplified the list somewhat by combining the 37 LGAs that make up Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, and Red Deer into four single areas, leaving a list of 99 different parts of the province.

Looking at population growth from 2026 to 2051, we find that most parts of the province are projected to grow, with 69 out of 99 LGAs posting population increases. The total loss across the other 30 LGAs is quite modest at just under 20,000.

At the top of the leaderboard in percentage terms is the Airdrie LGA, with projected population growth of 81% between 2026 and 2051, adding 78,325 to reach 174,800 residents.

Calgary will grow the most in absolute terms, adding 686,095 residents. Edmonton is a close second at 612,135.

At the bottom of the board is the Claresholm LGA, which is projected to shrink by 17% over the same period to 5,495 residents.

Bottom line: While there are areas of the province that will experience population decline, most parts of Alberta will add residents over the next 25 years. With that said, the vast majority of the growth will happen in the Calgary-Edmonton corridor. And, if you happen to live in one of the communities that is getting smaller, you will be facing challenges (and perhaps opportunities as well) that are quite different from the ones present in the fast-growing parts of the province.

There are many other facets to Alberta’s demographic future including aging, natural increase, and migration, with TBF’s report on its new projections providing a wealth of additional information.

*Alberta census divisions No. 6, No. 8, and No. 11.

**The population projections in today’s Twenty-Four are based on TBF’s medium-growth scenario. The population figures are as of July 1.

***LGAs are distinct from Alberta’s 300+ municipalities. Large municipalities like Calgary are divided into multiple LGAs while other LGAs may include more than one municipality. 

Answer to the previous trivia question: Brimstone is another name for sulphur.

Today’s trivia question: In what year did the population of the Calgary-Edmonton corridor reach the three million mark?