With the Harvest Moon looming large in the sky and Thanksgiving coming on Monday, it’s an apt time to check in on Alberta’s major crops sector.

It will vary depending on where you are in the province, but according to the latest Alberta Crop Report, the harvest of major crops in Alberta is ahead of the historical pace at 89% complete as of September 29. Recent dry conditions have facilitated this with farmers not having to interrupt harvesting due to rain.

A decent amount of rain in some parts of the province earlier in the year set the stage for higher production. According to Statistics Canada estimates, wheat (+12%), canola (+3%) and barley (+3%) production will all be higher than last year. Wheat (+15%) and canola (+2%) output will also beat their 10-year averages with barley production coming in somewhat lower (-3%).

Average yield estimates are also positive with production per hectare estimated to be higher for all three of Alberta’s largest crops (see the chart below).

Extremely dry conditions in some areas plus the general lack of rain in recent weeks mean that moisture reserves remain a concern with only 14% of the province posting a surface soil moisture rating of “good” at the end of September compared to a 10-year average of 40%. The area considered to have a “poor” moisture level was sitting at 43% compared to a 10-year average of 18%.

On the price side of things, the average prices Alberta farmers receive for wheat and barley were down over the first seven months of the year compared to the same period in 2024 by 6% and 3%, respectively.

Despite the implementation of a 100% Chinese tariff on canola oil and meal in March, the price of canola was actually slightly higher at +1% through July compared to the same period last year due in part to an anticipated increase in U.S. biofuel demand. With China adding a 75.8% tariff onto Canadian canola seed in August, it remains to be seen how this will affect prices going forward.

Overall, higher major crop production and yields will help offset softer prices with trade headwinds and uncertainty continuing to create challenges for the sector as we head into winter. 

The Twenty-Four team extends its thanks to all the farmers out there for all you do to keep us and so many others fed.

Note: Today’s Twenty-Four was going to dig deeper into the impact of tariffs on the export of specific goods, but the release of the relevant trade data has been delayed.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Thanksgiving is called Action de grâce in Quebec.

Today’s trivia question: In which provinces is Thanksgiving not a statutory holiday?