Global trade has been buffeted by U.S. tariffs and other headwinds, but trillions of dollars of goods and services are still flowing around the world. Global trade, in fact, grew by 7.5% last year to an all-time high of US$35 trillion. The rise in U.S. protectionism is not helpful, but the benefits of exchanging goods and services across borders remain the dominant global paradigm.

Within this broader context, Canada is an active participant in international trade. At around 30% last year, Canada’s exports-to-GDP ratio* matches the global average. Alberta is even more export-oriented** at 38% of GDP. (As an aside, the U.S. is much less dependent on international trade with an exports-to-GDP ratio of just 11%.)

All of this is to say that exports are a key factor when it comes to assessing the performance of the Canadian economy.

Thankfully, there is good news on this front.

The latest numbers from Statistics Canada show that, despite the frontloading of sales in the early part of 2025 in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, Canada’s merchandise exports*** were 8% higher over the first five months of the year and Canada’s trade surplus with the world has widened to its highest level in four years.

The YTD increase in international sales was driven by increased exports of energy products (oil), metals (gold), and minerals (potash).

Sales were down in a number of key sectors including forestry, autos, aircraft and steel. A surge in aluminum sales to the Netherlands, Italy and Greece helped, but YTD growth for this category still ended up being flat. Not coincidentally, all of these categories are hampered by sector-specific U.S. tariffs.

Strong commodity prices have been a key factor in the YTD increases, but the volume of sales has remained steady at about 1% higher so far this year.

Although sales to the U.S. have been rising since February, year-to-date (YTD) sales are flat, due in part to the tariff-related frontloading noted above.

Sales to non-U.S. customers, however, have been strong, up 32% YTD on the back of strong sales of metal and non-metallic mineral products (mostly an increase in exports of gold to the U.K.) and energy products (particularly oil to China).

Bottom line: Canada’s trade with the U.S. continues to be hampered by sectoral tariffs, but the general exemption from blanket U.S. tariffs provided under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement means that most Canadian goods are still getting into the U.S. market duty-free.

In the meantime, sales to non-U.S. customers have improved. A good part of this is due to higher gold exports to the U.K., which are highly sensitive to price. A more durable source of growth is the increased exports of oil to Asia via the B.C. coast—a factor that could become even more important if the proposed West Coast Pipeline is built.

We will dive into Alberta’s exports over the first five months of the year in the Twenty-Four next week when the more-detailed provincial data become available.

*Includes both goods and services measured in chained 2017 dollars.

**International exports only. If interprovincial exports are included, the ratio rises to about 57%.

***National trade statistics are reported on a seasonally adjusted balance of payments (BOP) basis.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The World Cup is expected to boost the June job numbers in the U.S. and Canada.

Today’s trivia question: Which country imported the most wheat from Canada in 2025?